Super Bowl XLVIII
Seattle Seahawks 43,. Denver Broncos 8
East Rutherford, New Jersey
February 2, 2014
Later today, both teams in this year's Super Bowl will be arriving not too far from where I am writing this. After that, you know the Super Bowl is getting very close. So, in honor of that, I begin my own personal week of coverage of the big game, in my own limited way, by giving a preview of the game, what I think very well might happen, and why.
This Super Bowl features a real contrast in styles. The highly explosive offense of the Denver Broncos, and the tough defense of the Seattle Seahawks. Fittingly, it will be the top offense (not just of this season, but of all time!) versus the league's top-rated defense, with a pass defense that some suggested just might be the best ever! That means that this match-up likely features the biggest test that either unit will have seen all season. Seattle's elite defense has not faced an opponent that will likely stretch them out like Denver is capable of doing. But Peyton Manning and the Broncos also have not faced a defense that will give them as many problems and headaches as the Seahawks potentially can.
Both teams have made a lot of noise, and are flashy. They both were preseason favorites, and also both started off undefeated (Denver started off 6-0, while Seattle started off 4-0), and have played like the two best teams in the league all year. Both of these teams were the number one seed in their conference, and so this marks only the second time in the last two decades that both of the top two seeds meet in the Super Bowl.
It should be said that both teams had their disappointments, albeit very few of them, during the season. The Denver Broncos enjoyed a hot 6-0 start where they were establishing a record pace with an offense that seemed to rank among the best units in history, before losing to the Colts on the road, a loss that placed them behind Kansas City in the AFC West race. But they got right back on track. They handed the undefeated Chiefs their first loss in a big Sunday Night Football showdown, then completed the season sweep a couple of weeks later, beating them again in Kansas City. Still, they had a big showdown with the Patriots, and took a 24-0 lead, only to watch the Patriots come back and narrowly win that game. Then they lost at home to the Chargers, ending their hopes of a perfect record at home. But they still had the best record, to secure the AFC Western division, and established all sorts of records in the process offensively, before exacting a sweet measure of revenge against San Diego in the playoffs, taking a sizable lead, and holding them off to advance to the AFC Championship Game, where they again faced New England, and won in a very similar manner to the way the beat the Chargers.
For Seattle, a hot start to begin the season, which including wins at Carolina and Arizona, and then blowing out their division rival San Francisco 49ers at home. But their undefeated 4-0 start also ended in Indianapolis, as it did with the Broncos, with a convincing loss to Luck and the Colts. But the Seahawks remained in front on their division. They stayed strong and looked like the best team in the league at times, and won a huge feature match against the Saints, who were nipping at their heels for best record in the NFC, and home field advantage at the time. But the Seahawks were finally beaten by the 49ers in San Francisco, although by a narrow margin. They still looked to be comfortably ahead in the divisional race, as well as even for home field advantage. Then, they were upset by the Arizona Cardinals at home, when a victory would have kept their perfect home streak going, and secured the division and home field. Instead, they had to fight on the last week of the regular season to hold on and clinch the division and the number one seed. They played New Orleans again in the divisional round, and although this was hardly the blowout kind of win they enjoyed over the Saints in the regular season, the 'Hawks nevertheless managed to hang on and win. Then, they came back from a 10-0 deficit to their division rival 49ers to ultimately win the NFC Championship Game.
And now, both teams find themselves here, right where many experts predicted both of these teams to be at this point: in the Super Bowl. Denver as a franchise has had an extensive history with the big game. They lost their first appearance to Dallas in the 1977-78 season, but had a memorable season. Then, they acquired John Elway some years later, and with legendary coach Dan Reeves, he would get the Broncos to three of four Super Bowels in the late 80's. Unfortunately, they lost every game, and by increasingly bigger margins. For a while, it looked like Elway would be remembered as a great quarterback who would never win the big game, but new head coach Mike Shanahan built a more solid team, with a very strong running game to help Elway out on offense. Denver enjoyed three consecutive successful regular seasons, the three winningest three consecutive seasons that any team had had at the time, from 1996-1998. In the latter two seasons, Denver qualified for the Super Bowl. They were heavy underdogs against the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XXXII, but their strong running game wore down a strong Green Bay defense, and their defense kept the Packers explosive offense, led by another legendary quarterback in Bret Favre, in check all day, as they shocked the Packers, 31-24. The next season, Denver was a powerhouse, jumping out to a historic 13-0 start, on their way to a 14-2 regular season, then dominating through the AFC Playoffs, and eventually easily dispatching the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl XXXIII, 34-19. This Super Bowl berth will be the seventh in franchise history, and they will be looking to bring home their third Vince Lombardi Trophy in history, although few active Denver players have played in the big game, and none with the Denver Broncos.
The Seattle Seahawks have only had one previous Super Bowl appearance, back in 2005. They had built an explosive offense, under coach Mike Holmgren (the former Packers coach that the Broncos defeated in Super Bowl XXXII) and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. The Seahawks put together a strong 13-3 record, the best in franchise history (now tied with this season's identical mark), and earning home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, also for the first time in franchise history, and they surprised a lot of people by dominating the NFC playoffs. They met the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XL, but eventually lost, 21-10, in a game where the stars on both sides did not play very well. The game itself was also perhaps the worst officiated Super Bowl in history, and some people, myself included, consider it arguably the most boring Super Bowl in history. This is only the second time in franchise history that Seattle has reached the Super Bowl, and they will be looking to take home their first Vince Lombardi Trophy.
So, who will win? What team has the better offense? Which one is better on defense? Special Teams? Which team has the better coaching?
Let me try and break these down:
Offense: Advantage Broncos
The offense of the Denver Broncos made the biggest news headlines of any unit in the league. The only team that could even come close to comparing with the numbers that Denver's offense put up this season were the 2007 New England Patriots, and they went 16-0!
The Broncos can beat you in many ways, and they have a lot of weapons. But mostly, it is Peyton Manning that makes this offense click. His intelligence and leadership led him to a historic, banner season, and he will likely get his fifth ever league MVP award this week. The Broncos have put up record numbers on offense, although this has not been the case as much in the playoffs.
Seattle's offense can be explosive at times, although it is more of a traditional, grind it out approach that relies heavily on a strong running game, behind Marshawn Lynch. It is a solid offense that gets the job done, but it simply cannot compete with the Broncos record shattering pace on offense. Still, Seattle's offense might not have to explode with points, if Seattle's very capable and talented defense can keep the Broncos offense in check. But that's a big "if".
Defense: Advantage Seahawks
Defensively, the Seahawks are the better unit. Denver's defense is good, and I think it's fair to say that they have played exceptionally well in this postseason to date. Through the first three quarters, they shut down the San Diego Chargers, holding them to 7 points going into the 4th quarter, and in the process, building up a large enough lead to mostly put the game out of reach. Then, they did the same to the New England Patriots last week, holding the usually prolific Patriots to a mere 3 points through the entirety of the first three quarters! Like they had done with San Diego, Denver had built up a solid enough lead, that the Patriots were never seriously in the game after that. You could make an argument that Denver's defense had actually been the more solid unit through the playoffs.
But Seattle dominated this season with it's defense, and you can make a valid argument that the defense held up in the playoffs when it counted the most. It held the Saints to no points for most of the divisional playoff game, and held New Orleans at the end, to preserve the victory. Then, after spotting the 49ers 10 points early on, they allowed only one touchdown the rest of the game, outscoring San Francisco 23-7 the rest of the way. And fittingly, it was their defense that came up with the big play against the Niners, with the interception that iced the victory for them.
Perhaps Denver's defense was more impressive than Seattle's in the playoffs, but that does not mean that they are the better of the two. Seattle's defense is the better unit and, in fact, the best in the league. The Seahawks do tend to gamble a bit on defense, though, and this could hurt them potentially in the big game. Still, the defense is very good, and again, some are suggesting that this is the best secondary that the NFL has ever seen. Whether or not that is true, they will have their hands full against Peyton Manning and the league's highest scoring offense in history this Super Bowl Sunday.
Speacial Teams: Advantage Seahawks
This one may seem the less obvious category. Yet, special teams often makes a huge difference in the big game, even when it is not expected. The Raiders first scored a touchdown with the special teams unit in Super Bowl XVIII against heavily favored Washington. The early lead helped the Raiders win that Super Bowl against the defending champions in a rout. In Super Bowl XXIII, both the Bengals and the 49ers had some huge plays with their special teams, and the Bengals scored their only touchdown with a kickoff return. They relied on their kicking game to stay in the game, and almost won that game. In Super Bowl XXXI, the Packers' Desmond Howard iced the game for Green Bay with a late touchdown to put the game out of reach, and he had a huge day overall, earning the Super Bowl MVP honors. In Super Bowl XXXV, both the Giants and the Ravens scored touchdowns on consecutive plays with their special teams units. And in Super Bowl XLI, Chicago's special teams got a touchdown on the first play of the game, although ultimately, Peyton Manning and the Colts overcame this to win it. And last year, Baltimore was able to score a touchdown on special teams, which proved helpful in their narrow victory over the 49ers, by a total of 3 points!
So, yes, the special teams can make a huge impact on the game, although it's certainly not guaranteed, either. Seattle's special teams were better than Denver's overall, and consistently ranked among the elite units in the league in every special teams category, while Denver was more middle of the pack. Advantage definitely goes to Seattle in this category. Although, you never know, right? That's why they play the game.
Here is a more specific breakdown from an article I found online that argues to giving the Seahawks a decisive advantage in the special teams unit (and the game overall, for that matter):
"Seahawks vs Broncos, Super Bowl XLVIII: 4 stats that say Seattle is about to win their first championship" by Kenneth Arthur, Jan 23 2014
Coaching: Tied
No, I don't see a real advantage for either team in terms of coaching. Pete Carroll has done a phenomenal job with Seattle in his four years, with three playoff berths, four playoff victories during that span, and two division titles overall (and never mind that one of them was earned with a losing overall record). Now, he has brought his team to the Super Bowl, and they are in position to possibly win the whole thing. Caroll had some head coaching experiences before in the NFL in the nineties (I remember him well with the Jets), but he really came into his own at college, with the USC Trojans, a team that became a dynasty under his tutelage. He has brought that same toughness and excitement to the Seahawks, and they are much the better for it.
But John Fox has a tremendous amount of valuable football experience himself. he was defensive coordinator for the 2000 New York Giants, who went to the Super Bowl (but lost). As head coach, he led the 2003 Carolina Panthers to the Super Bowl just two seasons after a disastrous 1-15 season with legendary head coach George Seifert. Carolina's defense was very tough in 2003, and they almost beat the New England Patriots! With the Broncos, John Fox has allowed the team to thrive, and they won the division and reached the divisional round of the playoffs in all three seasons with him at the helm. Now, he is coaching his the head coach at a Super Bowl for the second time, with a chance to win it.
So, who will win, and why?
Traditionally in football (and perhaps in sports in general), defense wins championships. Special teams can really help, and this, too, usually goes with solid defense. Through the course of the decades of Super Bowl (and indeed even further back, football overall) history, teams that have tough defenses and special teams, and a solid, pounding running game to wear out opposing defenses have won the championships. Bill Parcells, the great coach of the Giants, used to say, "Great offense wins games, great defense wins championships."
But the league had changed over the course of the last few decades, and nowadays, explosive offenses with big wide receivers are the norm, and have rather dominated. They have been described as video game offenses, with many establishing, or at least flirting, with all time records. Teams like the 1998 Minnesota Vikings, the St. Louis Rams from 1999-2001 (two Super Bowl berths, one Super Bowl win), the Indianapolis Colts throughout the 2000's (two Super Bowl berths, and one Super Bowl victory), the 2007 New England Patriots (lost Super Bowl XLII), and the 2009 New Orleans Saints (Super Bowl champions) were all teams with great offenses, and as you can see, they did win some Super Bowls between them.
Seattle's defense is the elite unit in the league this season, and Denver's offense is the top unit in the league this season, and of all time. it is fitting, then, that these two units will meet in the biggest game. It would seem logical that the winner of this battle, whoever gets the best of the other, should then go on to win the Super Bowl.
Often times, though, the biggest games are won in surprising fashion. Many people are expecting a shootout. Indeed, this expectation would seem to be justified. But personally, I would not be surprised if both defenses play very tough, and the game is a lot lower scoring than most people assume it will be. And I will look to see if Denver's defense can shut down Seattle's offense, as they have already San Diego and New England, or if Seattle's offense will be able to impose their will on them. This match-up might not be the one that everyone is holding their breath and waiting to see, and having conversations, or even debates, around the water cooler about. Yet, it could well determine the outcome of the game.
Special teams, on the other hand, are unpredictable. Sometimes, you kind of expect some kind of a big play, like with Devon Hester of the Chicago Bears back in Super Bowl XLI. But most of the time, it's not a safe bet to make an assumption that the special teams will be a huge factor in deciding a game.
Ultimately, it seems to me that Denver's historic year should be capped with a Super Bowl title, which would place Peyton Manning undeniably in the ranks of the very upper echelon even among the elite quarterbacks. He would have surpassed the all-time greats like Marino or Tarkenton or Young, and draw comparisons (perhaps even favorable) to the ones that most people consider truly the greatest of all time: Elway, Montana, and perhaps Favre. He has the arm and the brains to do it, and Denver's definitely got enough weapons.
But it would be hard to discount Seattle's dominance this season. They have the right formula that traditionally wins championships; the tough defense, the punishing and strong running game, and the special teams as extra insurance.
Bottom line, this is a very good Super Bowl, that truly pits the two best teams against one another. A Championship with a capital "C"!
Not to sound like a broken record, but I could see either team winning this. My head tells me Seattle has everything that they need, and should win it. But my heart, as well as my gut, tells me that Denver had a very special year this year, that they feel the need to get it done now, not later, and that they will somehow find a way to eke out a win. The offense will struggle at times, but a hot start should help them. Teams tend to react differently in the Super Bowl, to take chances, and sometimes, to get nervous. This could impact both teams, for better and/or for worse. Seattle takes chances, and I see them getting burned at least once or twice for some big plays. I look for Manning to throw at least two, maybe three touchdowns, even against Seattle's tough defense. If the kind of game I am thinking happens, then I see Denver going ahead like they did in the playoffs, with Seattle rallying as they did against San Francisco. It will go back and forth, and Manning will orchestrate a game winning drive, capping it with a touchdown toss, to take the lead that will win the game for them in the end.
Never liked predicting a score outright, but I think it will be in the area of 33-31, Denver.
What do you guys think? Please share your opinions/thoughts!
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