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Thursday Night Football: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
This is a big game, probably between the two top teams in the AFC East. My guess is that both teams circled this date on the calendar, and worked hard and prepared for it at least as long, if not longer, than they did for their respective season opening games.
The Dolphins and Bills both risked losses in those opening games. Both teams fell behind by serious margins. Indeed, both teams were trailing by 14 points at one point in their season opener, and both teams had to rally to complete a come from behind win. Both teams managed wins, although it felt (at least to me) that neither team scored as convincing wins as they probably should have.
However, one of these teams will win this game, and find themselves jumping out to an undefeated 2-0 start, and will find themselves with a good chance at being alone atop the AFC East standings by the end of Week 2 (unless the Pats beat the Seahawks, which actually could happen).
Most people seem to think that the Dolphins are set to emerge as the new top team in the AFC East.
Maybe. But I think that it means something that Buffalo has won the last four meetings in this rivalry. They have won the AFC East title in the previous four seasons, and have compiled an overall record of 38-18 in regular season play during that stretch. That qualifies them as one of the elites in the AFC, and indeed the NFL, in those four seasons. Only the Chiefs compare favorably in the AFC.
However, there is a sense that this is a different Bills team. Somehow, that heartbreaking "Wide Right 2" loss to the Chiefs in last season's playoffs (in Buffalo, no less) felt like it took some of the wind out of the sails for this team. If there was a time for them to prove that they finally, actually could knock off Kansas City in a meaningful way (in other words, knock them out of the playoffs), that was the time to do it.
Unfortunately, they fell short.
Now, the Dolphins feel like the team to watch in this division. However, the Bills are not simply going to give up their dominance in this division so easily. In fact, I suspect that Buffalo will have some tricks up their sleeves, and will push the Fins hard in this one. After all, they still have Josh Allen, and they also still are a talented team that should qualify for the postseason.
The stakes in this game feel particularly high for the Dolphins. They have been flirting with challenging Buffalo for some time now. Somehow, rather quietly, they have managed four straight winning seasons, but just have not gotten the better of Buffalo. Getting swept last season, and losing what seemed like a division title that they had all but officially locked up in the process, most likely haunted them during the offseason. And they know only too well, as do the Bills, that a loss in this game might set that goal back quite a bit, if not outright for this season. A loss might set the tone, and not a favorable one.
Nevertheless, this feels like Miami's kind of year. They are due for a breakout season, one in which they finally do emerge as serious contenders in the AFC. Last year, they flirted with that. This year, I expect that they take the next step and emerge as one of the elites. This game is key for them to do it, and that is why I expect them to finally get over the hump and beat the Bills tonight.
My pick: Miami
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