What Will Happen in Ukraine?

Events are moving fast now in Ukraine.

Obviously, the Russians appear to be in firm control of the Crimea.

Also, the Ukrainian army posted in Crimea took an oath of allegiance to the semi-autonomous region.

The west still continues to condemn it, but will likely not do anything. In the United States, specifically, this is being used against President Obama by opposition Republicans, who then bemoan the decline of American power and influence in the world, even though it is highly unlikely that any sane Republican in the White House would have done much more than verbal condemnation. The very thought of fighting a war that, essentially, pits the United States against Russia, with Russia enjoying home field, is just ludicrous. Yet, this is being used, rather predictably, as a political football.

There is a likely scenario of what this will mean within the American political landscape in a recent Mother Jones article,  "Here's What Is Going to Happen With Ukraine" by Kevin Drum, March 1, 2014, which I highly recommend:

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/03/wee-prediction-about-ukraine

Frankly, these American exceptionalists grow tiresome, always assuming far too much about American power and America's place in the world. They have not learned the folly, apparently, from previous times when such thinking led to disaster, such as with the Iraq invasion - which many of these American exceptionalists favored (although they might not be so loud and proud about it these days). Fact of the matter is that all that they think about what happens in the world is how America can capitalize and, if a situation seems to threaten American interests, they want the United States to exert enough power, up to and including military intervention, to get their way. he problem is that the world began to catch on about how limited American military might can be. It is a powerful country, but it cannot simply will things to go the way that it wants them to simply, and it's military is only so powerful and influential, as the recent wars in Iraq and Afghanistan proved. And trust me, there is just no way that the United States will enter actively into a war with Russia over the Ukraine. Some coworkers were "getting ready for a war", and like I did back during the days of the Iraq war, I urged them to go ahead and sign up for the military, in order not to miss this opportunity. But the reality is that Russia is far too strong for the United States to even seriously think about it for a moment. Probably, there will be sanctions, or something like that. Some merely symbolic gesture to slap Russia on the wrists, and the story will go away before too long, at least here in America, and the west more generally.

As for what will happen in the Ukraine itself, it is anyone's guess. Will Crimea reunite with Russia? What about those parts of the Ukraine, primarily in the eastern portion of the country, that have an ethnic Russian majority? Will they become part of Russia down the road? Will Russia use military force to control those parts, like it did with the Crimea? Will the Ukraine divide into two, with the western portion becoming more like a European Union satellite, and the eastern portion becoming more like a Russian satellite? Will the war escalate, or is Russia simply too powerful?

So many questions, and so few definitive answers at the moment. Time will tell, so let's see what happens.

Here was one article that I found very useful in writing this blog entry:

"Ukrainian troops dispatched in Crimea switch to region’s side – sources" by Gleb Garonich, March 2, 2014:

http://rt.com/news/ukraine-military-russia-resign-437/