As most people probably have heard, the French presidential elections are in full force right now. The first round of voting will take place this weekend, and will bring it to two main candidates in a run off election that will take place two weekends from now.
Right now, it appears that President Macron has a good chance of getting a second term. However, that is not a sure thing. In particular, Marine Le Pen has been closing in recently, as the polls between these two leading political figures in France have been tightening in recent days. Earlier this year, it looked like Le Pen might be well on her way to a win, but the Ukraine war interrupted her momentum. Like Trump here in the United States, Le Pen seemed almost to admire Putin at times, and seemed unconvinced that Russia would actually go ahead and invade Ukraine. So when it happened, she seemed to lose a little bit of credibility.
However, she has recovered. Now, she seems to be surging. The most recent polls show Macron with a projected 26.5 percent of the vote, while Le Pen has 21.5 percent. If those numbers hold up, then indeed, they likely would advance to a showdown against one another in the second round to determine who will be France’s president for the next five years.
All of that said, I have a bit of a nervous feeling. It seems like some far right wing candidates have a very real chance. Perhaps Marine Le Pen will pull off the win that has always eluded her and her family. But it seems that an even more extreme candidate, Eric Zemmour, is surging, just as the election is about to take place. Meanwhile, Le Pen is closing in on Macron, who is quite unpopular.
Not sure if one of them can pull off the win, and what that would mean for France, and for Europe. I hope that France won't follow Brexit and/or having their answer to the US voting for Trump by voting for their own populist, xenophobic candidate. Macron seems likely to win a second term, even though the prospects for that are not particularly exciting for many people in France. He has long been unpopular, and earlier this year, seemed to be sinking after a scandal. But the Ukrainian conflict seems to have given him a bit of a lift.
No matter what, it should be interesting to see what happens.
French markets skittish as far-right candidate Le Pen closes gap in election polls by Elliot Smith, April 6 2022:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/06/french-election-markets-skittish-as-far-right-candidate-le-pen-closes-gap.html
Technically, it's not certain that there will be a second round in the form of a runoff election. But it's a virtual given that there will be, since one of the candidates would need to get 50% of the votes in order to prevent that. And I don't need to tell you that France is highly polarized right now.
ReplyDeleteFor what it's worth, I think Macron and Le Pen will face each other in the second round again, with Macron prevailing like he did five years ago. However, I think his margin of victory will be narrower than it was then. I fear that it's only a matter of time until a far right candidate is elected, as much as I obviously hope to be dead wrong about that.
My guess is that it will be Macron and Le Pen, as well. And that it will be close, and possible that Le Pen wins it this time. But we'll see. Time will tell.
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