Yes, today is the big election day in France, when we find out the two candidates who will face off in the run off election. That second round will take place two weeks from today. But on this day, the field of candidates for the French presidency, which numbers 12 presently, will dwindle down to the final two candidates. One of them will serve as the president of France for the next five years.
The 12 candidates still officially alive and hopeful today are Nathalie Arthaud, Fabien Roussel, Jean Lassalle, Éric Zemmour, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Anne Hidalgo ,Yannick Jadot, Valérie Pécresse, Philippe Poutou, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, and of course, incumbent Emmanuel Macron, who hopes to win a second term.
Macron is the current president and is considered a centrist. Candidates from both the left and the right have criticized Macron for being an elitist who is out of touch with the day to day realities and struggles of the French people. He has been a mostly unpopular president.
Nevertheless, he is expected to win enough votes to day to move onto the second round. Far right-wing extremist Marine Le Pen of the National Rally (Rassemblement National) is expected to survive to face off with him in the second round for a rematch of the general election in 2017.
We will find out later today who officially survives through to the second round.
Actually, today (Sunday) is the day of the election. French citizens abroad vote the day before. It wasn't always that way – this change was ostensibly implemented to prevent scenarios like the one in 2002, wherein those of us who were voting at the Consulate overheard people talking on their cell phones with people back in France, where results were already starting to come in.
ReplyDeleteUpdate: I watched what I feel was good coverage of the returns on ICI RDI (Montréal-based news channel) earlier this afternoon. They talked about it for at least a couple hours, with no commercial interruptions. Anyway, as you've probably heard by now, the same two candidates who advanced to the second round in 2017 have done so again. From what I gather, the math simply doesn't add up in terms of Marine Le Pen's chances for victory. Meaning the support she's likely to get from her own party (and more or less like-minded parties) isn't going to get her to the 50% tally she would need. That being said, there are at least two important variables to consider: is it possible that the number of people casting ballots for her in two weeks will be substantially greater than the number of people who openly state their intention to do so, and will substantial numbers of people who don't support her stay home, whether due to overconfidence, or refusal to cast a ballot for either of the runoff candidates?
ReplyDeleteAs I predicted, I believe Macron will prevail once again, albeit by a slimmer margin than he did five years ago. We shall see.