Thursday, January 4, 2024

Are the Buffalo Bills A Serious Title Contender, or Is This Another Version of a Team That Won't Live Up to Their Billing?



I will now admit to rooting interests beyond the Giants (and to a lesser extent, the Jets). Every now and again, my rooting interests will shift from the two New York teams, and focus on another franchise. When very young, I flirted with being a fan of the Dallas Cowboys, probably because they were flashy, and this appealed to my then very young self. When I was a kid, I always liked the Tampa Bay Bucs, even though they were terrible. And there are teams that I always liked. Among them are the Cincinnati Bengals, the New England Patriots, and the Buffalo Bills.

Well, that was especially true for the Buffalo Bills for a decently long period, beginning in 1988, and going through to the mid-nineties, when their miniature dynasty - if that is what you can call it - finally ended. In 1988, the Bills ended years of losing and failing to be competitive, and started the season 11-1. They slowed down a bit the rest of the year, ending the regular season 12-4, but made it to the AFC Championship Game, before losing to Cincinnati once there. The Bills then went 9-7 in 1989, still winning the AFC East, but lost to the Browns in the divisional round. After that, the Bills stepped it up a notch, finishing 1990 with a record of 13-3 (they rested their starters in the regular season finale, which was a loss), easily earning the AFC's top seed. They were so good, that they made people stand up and notice what they were doing with a new look "K-Gun" offense, which was the highest scoring offense in the league. By beating some NFC bullies, like the Eagles and getting past the Giants on the road at the Meadowlands, most people regarded them as a legitimate title contender, which was a real rare distinction in that era for AFC teams. They blew away the AFC competition, scoring 44 points against Miami, and then blowing out the Raiders, 51-3, in the AFC title game (they were leading 41-3 by halftime). They actually were solid favorites against the Giants. 

But perhaps they allowed their success to go a bit to much into their heads. One Bills player let it be known that he was getting his finger measured for a ring. Another complained that they would be playing the Giants, and not the more famous 49ers, in the big game. They still played fairly well, and very nearly won. Indeed, Big Blue played a brilliant game, focusing on trying to rein in that dangerous Bills' passing game, while the offense tried to milk the clock and keep Buffalo's offense on the sideline - and keep them from getting too hot and in a rhythm - as much as possible. It worked....barely. The Giants held onto the ball for well over 40 minutes, a Super Bowl record. They overcame a 12-3 second quarter deficit, and clung to a narrow 20-19 lead, when the Bills, infamously, waited for placekicker Scott Norwood to convert a 47-yard field goal attempt. He missed. It was the infamous "wide right" field goal attempt that could have won it for the Bills, but didn't. 

In 1991, they followed that up with another very impressive season. Once again, their K-Gun offense was mighty impressive. Once again, the Bills were easily the class of the AFC. Once again, they went 13-2 and clinched everything possible as the AFC's number one seed, before losing a meaningless regular season finale. It looked as if they would cruise through the AFC playoffs again, and then face the mighty Washington Redskins in the Super Bowl. They appeared destined for a huge showdown all season long. But after the Bills easily dispatched with the Chiefs in the AFC divisional round, they seriously struggled against the Broncos. The Bills won, 10-7. But they did it without scoring a touchdown on offense, and without blowing out Denver the way they had done against AFC opponents before. Indeed, they reached the Super Bowl, and there was a showdown with Washington. But there was a sense that they were not necessarily playing their best, that they seemed curiously to have almost run out of gas in the AFC Championship Game against Denver. Washington jumped all over Buffalo early on in the Super Bowl. Star running back Thurman Thomas infamously misplaced his helmet, missing the game's first potentially crucial plays, one of which might have seen him break open and possibly have a shot at an early touchdown. With backup Kenneth Davis in there, the Bills were not able to make as much of it. On offense, they looked terrible throughout the first half, as Washington's top rated defense made them look bad. They kept serious pressure on quarterback Jim Kelly, often forcing Thomas to stay back and block, thus seriously limiting both Buffalo's passing and running attack. The Bills trailed 17-0 by halftime, and were behind 24-0 well into the second half, before the Bills offense finally found some traction. It felt like it was too late. Washington dominated the game, ultimately winning, 37-24, in a game that was not even as close as the score suggested. 

The Bills remained the class of the AFC for the next couple of seasons, as well. They remained one of the best in the AFC throughout the 1992 season, going 4-0 against NFC teams, including impressive road wins against the 49ers (the first NFL game where neither team punted) and the Saints. But the Bills lost at Houston in the regular season finale, and this time, it proved costly. They missed their chance at home field advantage and even another AFC East division title. They did host a Wildcard Game, but fell behind badly to those same Houston Oilers. But obviously, everybody remembers that game for the Bills pulling off an epic, historical comeback, coming back from being down 35-3 (32 points) to pull off what was then the greatest comeback in NFL history, and which remains the greatest comeback in NFL playoff history. This gave them a surge, and they cruised past both the Steelers and the Dolphins on the road. They got off to a decently hot start in the Super Bowl against the Dallas Cowboys, blocking a pun and then scoring a quick touchdown moments later, to take a 7-0 lead. The game remained relatively close for most of the first half, although quarterback Jim Kelly went out with an injury. But towards the end of the half, the Cowboys managed to score a touchdown, and this was followed by a Thurman Thomas fumble deep in Buffalo territory, which was recovered by Dallas. The Cowboys scored another touchdown, and the route was on. It was another Super Bowl loss, a record third straight. 

In 1993, the Bills of that era had their last real stand as an elite level team. Once again, they were perfect against NFC opponents, getting revenge on the Super Bowl losses to the Giants, Redskins, and even beating the Cowboys in Dallas on a scorching day, although it should be noted that star running back Emmitt Smith was sitting out at that point that season. The Bills finished the season 12-4, and once again, earned home field advantage throughout he playoffs. They got past the Raiders in a tough divisional round game, beating Jeff Hostetler (the Giants quarterback when the beat the Bills in Super Bowl XXV) in that one. Then they crushed the Kansas City Chiefs, led by quarterback Joe Montana, who was then still regarded as the GOAT. Back to the Super Bowl, and another decent start against Dallas. In fact, they were outplaying the 'Boys solidly, taking a 13-6 lead into the locker room by halftime. But i all fell apart in the second half. They did not get humiliated quite as badly as the year prior, but they still lost 30-13. A record fourth straight Super Bowl loss. That would mark the end of the Bills as an elite, Super Bowl caliber team. In some respects, that 1993 season was kind of symbolic. The Bills showed what they were capable of, beating tough NFC teams, including two playoff teams, early on. They beat the Cowboys in Dallas in the regular season, and were beating them convincingly through the first half in the Super Bowl. But it all came apart for them right at the end, which felt like the unfortunate legacy for the team during that era.

The rest of the decade of the nineties was rather an up and down, inconsistent one for the Bills. They missed the playoffs in 1994, but returned both in 1995 (as division champs) and 1996, but failing to reach the AFC title game both times. They kind of bombed in 1997, but returned to the playoffs both in 1998 and 1999. But their one and only playoff game in 1999 was a disaster, now known as the "Music City Miracle.' The Bills seemed to have won, but the Titans scored on a miraculous touchdown in the final seconds after several laterals (with some controversy, since one lateral appeared to be more of a forward pass). 

It was the last time that the Bills would be a playoff team for a number of years. They would not return back to the postseason until 2017, when Sean McDermott took over as head coach. The next season, they got quarterback Josh Allen, who stood out, and became the Bills starting quarterback. They returned to the postseason in 2019, and finally, in 2020, they won the division title for the first time in a quarter of a century, and followed that with their first playoff wins since that same 1995 season (when they had last won a division title). They ultimately fell short in Kansa City. The next year, they met the Chiefs again in the divisional round after beating the Patriots in the Wildcard round, but lost in the infamous "13 second" game, once again watching what seemed like a sure win turn into an inexplicable and heartbreaking loss. Another shocking and heartbreaking postseason exit.

Still, there was a lot of hope for the Bills. They acquired some serious talent in the offseason, and looked good throughout the season. Yet after Buffalo finished 13-3 last season, tying the franchise best regular season record (achieved in 1990, 1991, and 2020) and got past Miami in the Wildcard Game, they got simply dominated at home by the Bengals. Another seemingly much too early exit.

So all of that brings us now to the present. Once again, they were regarded as a favorite before the season started. But the Bills were kind of an inconsistent, up and down team this season. They showed some of why they are regarded as an elite team fairly early on, scoring three consecutive blowout wins against the Raiders, Commanders, and Dolphins early on. Yet they also kept losing some games, inexplicably, against teams that you figured they should beat. They lost the opener to the Jets, and eventually lost games to the Jaguars (in London), the lowly Patriots, the Bengals (again) and at home to the Broncos. At that point, they were 5-5, and things were not looking good. They beat the Jets, then lost at Philly, and Josh Allen said that the math was not looking good, in terms of the Bills hopes for reaching the postseason. 

Since then, the Bills have won four straight. They still have not clinched a playoff berth as of my writing and publishing this, but things look good. From seemingly on the cusp of down and out with what appeared to be a lost season, they now have a chance to take the AFC East division title, which seemed mostly out of reach for a long time. If they beat the Dolphins this Sunday, they not only clinch the playoffs, but win the AFC East title and earn the number two seed. Suddenly, it's not a laughable notion anymore that the Bills could be one of the elites in the AFC, and may even have a shot at reaching the Super Bowl.

Yet, they also have a history of suffering heartbreaking losses, and disappointing high expectations. So it feels like they are at a crossroads now. If they win in Miami and take the division, and perhaps then make another deep run in the AFC playoffs, perhaps even reaching the Super Bowl (something which, I feel, they could actually do, if they play their best), then they should continue as one of the league's elite teams for another season or two, at the very least. But if they lose in Miami, and/or find themselves losing surprisingly early in the postseason again, then it might feel like that is the defining trend. It's a bit reminiscent of the first half of the nineties, except that these Bills have not yet even reached the Super Bowl. 

So let's see what happens. But I will make one prediction. This Sunday, I expect them to beat the Dolphins in Miami, and I even expect them to make a decent run once the playoffs start. Not sure if that means that they will qualify for the Super Bowl, or win it. Still, as I have said before, and will say again, the Bills are good enough to say that they can beat any team on any given Sunday when they play at their best. The question is, of course, will they? 






Bills at Dolphins: Buffalo favored for Week 18 AFC East showdown by James Pennington, Jan 2, 2024:

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2024/1/2/24022975/bills-at-dolphins-nfl-week-18-buffalo-favored-draftkings-sportsbook-for-week-18-afc-east-showdown




Bills-Dolphins will play for 2023 AFC East title in regular-season finale  Nick Wojton  December 31, 2023:

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2023/12/31/buffalo-bills-miami-dolphins-2023-afc-east-title-nfl/?utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR3dWNf9lHWoyhga9Qtz32i8rdGNzqrAn8VorNLZU2fS4lz3dzsoLk-iN3g


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