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Kansas City Chiefs (13-6) at Baltimore Ravens (14-4)
If the Chiefs were to extend their dynasty this postseason, they would need to rise above their level of play through the regular season. So far through two games, they have been doing just that.
Yes, the Chiefs dominated the Dolphins in the Wild Card game at frigid Arrowhead Stadium. That much was to be expected. After all, there was no question about just how tough the Chiefs can be in the playoffs when playing in Kansas City. They have hosted the five previous AFC Championship Games, and won three of the last four AFC Championships. Also, the Dolphins were pretty much down on their luck going in, having largely deflated towards the end of the season. They looked predictably flat in icy Kansas City, and the Chiefs were the beneficiaries of that match-up.
But last weekend, the Chiefs won an especially impressive game. This was the first time in the Mahomes era that they were forced to go on the road for a postseason game, not including the Super Bowls. And you know what? They likely played their most impressive game of the season. No, they did not blow the Bills out. However, they won, and likely more convincingly than the final score would suggest. It felt like the defense really stepped up big when they had to against the Bills, and really clamped down on Buffalo's "O" in the second half in particular. Also, their offense looked almost as explosive as in recent years, which was something we did not see much from that offense throughout most of this season.
So that is the good news.
The bad news?
Well, Buffalo really enjoyed a lot of success running against KC's defense. For long stretches of that game, the Bills seemed to be controlling the clock and the momentum by seemingly pushing the Chiefs around, and exhausting them. True, the Chiefs defense recovered and played well enough to win in the second half. But they likely will be tested by the Ravens own running game, which could prove challenging.
The major question for KC's defense, as with every defense that has to go up against the Ravens, is how well they handle the challenge of Lamar Jackson. Jackson has been a star for many years, and he is a finalist for this year's NFL MVP award. If he wins, it would be for the second time in his career already. He can beat defenses with either his legs or his arm, and poses a double threat. It's a situation where opposing defense kind of have to pick their poison. To say that Kansas City's defense will have their hands full is a bit of an understatement.
Baltimore enjoyed a hugely successful season. Their offense proved to be one of the most explosive in the league, and their defense was the stingiest in the league. They allowed the least points of any team, although it should be noted that number two on that list was none other than the Kansas City Chiefs. So I would not be surprised if this proves to be a low-scoring contest dictated by the defenses. The scary thought is that both the Chiefs and the Ravens have shown an ability to win either in a shootout, or in a low-scoring contest. Certainly, both teams are aware of this.
Not sure how much the home field advantage will benefit the Ravens. The Chiefs are not concerned with cold weather, obviously, as they beat the Dolphins in frozen Arrowhead two weekends ago, and then beat the Bills up in icy Buffalo last Sunday. Also, the Ravens, if anything, were better on the road this season than they were at home.
Expect a tough, grueling game. Baltimore will surely test just how effective KC's running defense, which will prove a big challenge. If the Ravens win, it likely will have a lot to do with that, and with them controlling the clock.
However, I do expect that the Chiefs will show up in top form. Something about Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, and Andy Reid at coach, seems to give KC a chance in every playoff game that they play. Even when they lose - except for that one blowout loss to the Bucs in the Super Bowl a few years ago - it seems that the Chiefs are right there. They are in every game. And I expect that to be the difference. Kansas City just has a ton of experience, and as they did with Buffalo, they should be able to exploit another team's past playoff demons and, in the end, lift up another AFC Championship trophy.
My pick: Kansas City
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