Bizarre International Fiasco As Taiwan Apologizes After Issuing Air Raid Alert Amid Fears of Seemingly Imminent Attack By China

 

Earlier today, Taiwan issues an air raid warning after a satellite over it's territory was described in English as a "missle." Taiwan's defense ministry then issued an urgent air raid warning. 

Later, once it was determined that this was an error, Taiwanese officials issued an apology. 

All of this comes as an upcoming election in Taiwan is heating up and just days away.

“It was a satellite, not a missile,” President Tsai Ing-wen said during a campaign stop in the southern city of Kaohsiung. “Don’t worry.”

Still, not everyone was convinced that this was not some sort of political gimmick specifically issued because of the upcoming election:

The leading opposition party — the National Party, Kuomintang, or K.M.T. — issued its own rapid-fire response.

“I think the Ministry of National Defense is trying to mislead the public by issuing such an alert,” said Eric Chu, the K.M.T.’s chairman. 

And then there was this:

Alexander Chieh-cheng Huang, an adviser to the opposition Nationalist Party who teaches at Tamkang University in Taiwan, swore when he saw the alert on his phone during an interview at a party-affiliated think tank.  

“It’s all part of the campaign,” he said.

Is it all just propaganda, designed to help one party win in the upcoming elections? In fact, there is a long history of China intervening indirectly in Taiwanese affairs, particularly during the election seasons. Is the threat of a Chinese invasion being used as some kind of a political football?

Well, China's position on politics within Taiwan does have an effect, and may have an impact on what actually occurs in the future between the two countries. According to an article by Huileng Tan of Business Insider:

Tensions between China and Taiwan could rise if presidential frontrunner William Lai Ching-te from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, win the presidential race. Beijing views Lai as a separatist.

Certainly, the prospects of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan has been regarded as a serious threat both inside and outside of Taiwan. Some people felt that Russia's invasion of Ukraine a couple of years ago might effectively give China the green light to go ahead with it's own invasion of Taiwan. So far, at least, that has not happened.

Yet it should be noted that such an invasion would seem to wreak havoc on the world economic situation. It might produce an economic crisis that would be even more severe than the Covid-19 pandemic and shutdown. 

Here, according to an article by Huileng Tan of Business Insider, are some of the major things that everyone should keep in mind, in terms of what kind of an impact an actual invasion of Taiwan by China might create:

 - A war over Taiwan could wipe out 6.7% from the US economy in its first year, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis. 

- The US economy could take a 3.3% hit to its GDP growth if China blockades Taiwan. 

- Taiwan is a major semiconductor chip supplier to the world. The island heads to the polls on Saturday.

Still, the impact of such an invasion on the American economy would be relatively minor to that of other affected countries, particularly those in the Far East:

Overall, a war over Taiwan could hit the world's economy to the tune of $10 trillion — or about 10% of global GDP — Bloomberg forecasts.  

Taiwan could see 40% shaved off its GDP in the first year of a war while China's GDP could tank 16.7%, Bloomberg predicts.  

Other countries most affected by war over Taiwan include South Korea and Japan, which could see their growth contract by 23.3% and 13.5% respectively in the first year of the conflict, Bloomberg predicts. Southeast Asia's GDP as a region could tank by 20.1%.

An invasion like that could have enormous economic and political implications. Some people even might suggest that it could be the beginning of World War III, literally. 

Nor is it something that is simply overblown. China has never recognized Taiwan as it's own, independent entity. And as far as an invasion goes, while concerns about the immediacy of an impending invasion may sometimes be overblown - as the urgent air raid warning earlier today, and the accusations of this being a manipulative political ploy suggests - the reality that there likely will be an invasion at some point really are not overblown. Again, here is some perspective offered in that same article by Huileng Tan of Business Insider:

While it doesn't appear as if China is set to invade Taiwan any time soon, Beijing has been ramping up military drills over the last few years. On New Year's Eve, Chinese President Xi Jinping said "reunification" with Taiwan is inevitable.

Below are the links to the articles which I used in writing this particular blog entry, and from which I obtained all of the quotes and specific information in this blog entry:

A war over Taiwan would be even more damaging to the US economy than COVID was, Bloomberg forecasts Huileng Tan Jan 9, 2024, 4:

https://www.businessinsider.com/taiwan-war-impact-us-economic-growth-first-year-china-chips-2024-1

A Missile, a Rocket or a Satellite? Chinese Flyover Sows Confusion in Taiwan. by Damien Cave Reporting from Taipei, Taiwan  Jan. 9, 2024,: 

A warning from Taiwan about a satellite, erroneously called a missile in English, raised concerns about Chinese harassment days before an election.  

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/09/world/asia/taiwan-alert-chinese-flyover.html