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Kansas City Chiefs
San Francisco 49ers (14-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (14-6)
The Kansas City Chiefs have opted for their red home jerseys, apparently unconcerned about the recent historical trend of teams wearing the white jerseys dominating recent Super Bowls.
Yes, believe it or not, there are some strange trends like this which most people do not notice, but which for one reason or another, favor one team over the other.
Here are some Super Bowl facts to consider now, with the two participants in this coming Super Bowl now known:
- The NFC currently holds the overall lead in Super Bowls won, with 29. Meanwhile the AFC has won 28, and will tie if the AFC champs win this Super Bowl.
- One rather bizarre and seemingly random, and almost inexplicable “streak” is that the team wearing their “away” jerseys, or their white jerseys, tends to enjoy far more Super Bowl success. Overall, teams wearing their white jerseys have an impressive 35-22 record overall. Moreover, this trend has been more pronounced in recent seasons. Since the Patriots won Super Bowl XXXIX in their white jerseys, teams wearing white jerseys in the Super Bowl won 12 of the next 13 Super Bowls, with the sole exception being when the Packers won XLV wearing their dark jerseys, breaking a streak of six straight games won by the team wearing white jerseys both before and after that particular Super Bowl. Since then, teams wearing their white jerseys have won 15 of the 19 Super Bowl games overall. This trend has not gone unnoticed. Beginning with the Steelers, who opted to wear their white jerseys for Super Bowl XL (which caused a minor controversy), numerous other teams (the Patriots several times, the Broncos in Super Bowl 50, and the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV all have opted to wear their “away” white jerseys instead of their “dark” home jerseys.
- The winning quarterback statistically has the best chance of winning the MVP award for the game, having won it 32 times in the 57 Super Bowls played so far. Since Super Bowl XIII, quarterbacks have been named the MVP of the game a whopping 27 times in the 45 games.
- Very good defenses will usually top elite offenses to win the Super Bowl. As Bill Parcells once said, “Great offenses win games. Great defenses win championships.” Tough to figure which team might benefit the most in this one, as both have had very solid defenses this season.
- The team that scores first has won 37 of the 57 games. That is almost a margin of two to one in favor of the team scoring first.
- There used to be a trend where teams representing people beat teams representing animals. If we include the Bills four Super Bowl losses (since they are more often than not represented by a buffalo), teams that have human names or mascots (Patriots, Giants, 49ers, etc.) tend to beat teams representing or represented by animals (Broncos, Dolphins, Bengals). One exception has been the Ravens, who beat the Giants and the 49ers in their two previous Super Bowl appearances. The 15-3 before Bills 11-4 50 3-1 29-8
- This particular Super Bowl is a rematch. Indeed, these two franchises have met in the big game before, and just a few years ago. The Chiefs won that one, 31-20, as we may remember. Historically, the team winning the first meeting has won the second meeting four out of the six times. There is only one Super Bowl rivalry where the same two teams have met in more than two Super Bowls, that being the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Dallas Cowboys. The Steelers won the first two meetings in the 1970's, while the Cowboys won the third meeting in the 1990's. Overall, however, this trend would seem to favor the Chiefs.
- The 49ers are 1.5 point favorites. According to a recent article by Tyler Maher recently published in Forbes magazine:
*In 57 Super Bowls, the favorite is 29-25-2 against the spread, excluding the pick’em. The two pushes happened in Super Bowl XXXI (1997) and Super Bowl XXXIV (2000).
*Underdogs have had more success lately, covering the spread in 15 of the last 22 Super Bowls.
*Underdogs have been less successful on the moneyline, where favorites are 37-20.
This trend would seem to favor the 49ers.
- Finally, the Chiefs will try to repeat as Super Bowl champions. Historically, this has been done eight times, by seven different franchises (the Steelers managed to do it twice). Other teams have had the opportunity, but failed. Those teams were the 1978 Dallas Cowboys, the 1983 Washington Redskins, the 1997 Green Bay Packers, the 2014 Seattle Seahawks, the 2017 New England Patriots, and the 2020 Kansas City Chiefs. That means that, historically, teams reaching the Super Bowl as the defending champions and trying to repeat are 8-6 overall. Repeating as champions used to be more common in previous decades. But in the 21st century, so far only the New England Patriots managed to win back-to-back Super Bowl titles in 2003 and 2004. So this trend could favor either the Chiefs or the 49ers, depending on what part of this you are looking at, the overall historical trend, or the more recent trend.
Below are the links to the articles which I used in writing this particular blog entry, and from which I got many (but not all) of the trends which I documented above:
Super Bowl Betting: Super Bowl Point Spreads History by Tyler Maher Editor, Reviewed by Brian Pempus Editor Updated: Feb 1, 2024:
https://www.forbes.com/betting/football/nfl/point-spreads-super-bowl/#:~:text=As%20expected%2C%20favorites%20have%20had,Super%20Bowl%20XXXIV%20(2000).
Repeating in NFL used to be more common, but Chiefs aim to be first back-to-back champs in 19 years The Chiefs had a chance to do it three years ago, but lost 31-9 to Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. ASSOCIATED PRESS / January 31, 2024:
https://www.courthousenews.com/repeating-in-nfl-used-to-be-more-common-but-chiefs-aim-to-be-first-back-to-back-champs-in-19-years/#:~:text=But%20no%20team%20has%20done,Feb.%2011%20in%20Las%20Vegas.
Super Bowl 2024: Chiefs to wear red vs. 49ers amid recent run of white jersey Super Bowl domination by Nick Bromberg, Wed, Jan 31, 2024:
A year ago, the Chiefs became the 16th team wearing white to win a Super Bowl since the 2005 season
https://sports.yahoo.com/super-bowl-2024-chiefs-wear-red-vs-49ers-amid-recent-run-of-white-jersey-super-bowl-domination-175104469.html
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