Whenever the season grows late - and it's December now, obviously - there are likely to be plenty of intense games with a lot of playoff implications. This weekend is no exception.
Just look at the two night games. The Rams will face the Bears. Sure, L.A. already clinched another division title, but they need to win to stay ahead of the Saints. But the Bears are fighting tooth and nail to win their division title, as well as perhaps to stay ahead of Dallas for that third seed. Then, the Vikings, who are desperately trying to catch Chicago, will go out to the West Coast to visit Seattle, and both teams are fighting to qualify for the postseason, with little to no margin for error left for either team.
And that is just the night games! You have the Ravens, who need to win to stay ahead of the Titans for that final playoff spot, going out to Kansas City, who also need to win to stay ahead of the red hot Chargers in the AFC West. The Panthers play the Browns on the road, and need to stop the bleeding from a four game losing streak. Washington also needs to win, but like Carolina, they are cold, having lost three in a row. Indianapolis was red hot until they got shut out by Jacksonville last weekend, and now they face a tough toad game against the league's hottest team in Houston, and the Texans need to win to keep their hopes for a playoff bye, and possibly home field advantage throughout, alive. The Patriots want to stay ahead of Houston, but they will travel down to Miami, where the Dolphins need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Then, you have that huge game between Dallas and Philadelphia, with both teams still hoping to take the NFC East division title!
There is more, too! So, let's take a closer look:
N.Y Giants at Washington - The Giants are hot right now, having won three of four games. They are playing their best football since they qualified for the playoffs two seasons ago, and although the postseason is out of reach this year, they seem to be playing to restore faith and pride in the team, and perhaps mentally preparing for next season. Washington, meanwhile, is very thin at quarterback, and their offense was never all that great to begin with. They have lost three in a row, and lost much of their favorable playoff position in the process. Not long ago, they had a fairly comfortable lead in the NFC East, but these three straight losses, and particularly the loss at Dallas followed by the loss at Philly, had to hurt these team mentally. Now, they go back home, but face a motivated and rising Giants team, which will be tough. They absolutely need to win this game, but there are just so many question marks for them right now. My prediction: N. Y. Giants
N.Y. Jets at Buffalo - The last time that these two teams met, Gang Green got embarrassed at home, losing 41-10 to Buffalo. Now, the Bills are coming off a tough loss in Miami that effectively ends their slim playoff hopes. Yet, the Jets are in a worse place, having lost six straight, and are among the most troubled teams in the league. Their coach is on the hot seat, and the team is alone with the worst record in the AFC East, and tied for the second worst record overall in the league with the Cardinals. Only the 49ers and the Raiders - the two Bay area teams - have worse records than the Jets. Obviously, Gang Green would like to change that. And they would love to get revenge against the Bills for being humiliated like that earlier this season, in front of their home fans. But this is also possibly the last, best chance for the Jets to get another win this season, as they face the Texans, the Packers, and the Patriots after this. None of those are necessarily easy games. But the question is whether Gang Green can pull this one off. Buffalo will likely be motivated to play a solid game and get another win, as well, and they have home field advantage up in frigid Buffalo. I think that the Jets have a real chance, because it is unlikely that they get blown out again. Whether or not it will be enough for them to actually pull this one off is another story, though. My pick: Buffalo
Baltimore at Kansas City - Now this is an interesting game! The Chiefs looked like world beaters and record setters earlier this season, particularly on offense. But they at least appear to be slowing down some lately, with a loss to the Rams on that big Monday Night Football showdown, followed by a somewhat shaky win against the Raiders, where they allowed a lot of points. The Ravens defense is much tougher, and Baltimore should be fired up, needing a win to stay ahead in the playoff race. It helps the Chiefs that this game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium, but how much will it benefit them? That remains the question, as one of the league's best offenses now faces one of the best defenses. Again, the Ravens need the win to keep that final AFC playoff spot, but KC needs to win to stay ahead of the Chargers in the AFC West. They could literally drop from the top seed in the AFC, which they have held literally all season, to fifth, and being forced to go on the road in the Wild Card round, should they fall behind or lose the division to the Chargers. So, this is a big game for them, too. My pick: Kansas City
Carolina at Cleveland - At mid-season point, it looked like the Panthers were going to skateboard into the playoffs, as if nothing could stop them from at least reaching the postseason. Meanwhile, after a decent start, the Browns were really seriously struggling, and even seemed to show hints that they might be giving up on the season. Fast-forward a month or so, and the situation looks entirely different for both teams. The Browns suddenly look like they are fired up again, and ready to pull off upsets and play spoiler. As for Carolina? Well, they have now lost four straight, and if the season ended today, they would not even be in the playoffs. We have learned that Cleveland can be a tough place to play, and they would like to get a few more wins under their belts before this season ends. The struggling Panthers need this win, but this could prove tricky. This is a tough one, because it is easy to picture the Browns pulling off an upset, but it is also easy to imagine the Panthers finally getting it together enough to get more or less back on track for a late postseason run. My pick: Cleveland
Indianapolis at Houston - Indianapolis was red hot, particularly on offense, when they hit a brick wall last weekend in Jacksonville. Now, they have the rather considerable task of trying to get back on track against the hottest team in the league. Houston has now pulled off nine straight wins after dropping their first three games of the season. They are in the hunt for home field advantage, and would like at least one of the playoff byes. So far, things have been going their way, luck has been on their side. They clearly want to keep their momentum going, and a win today would inch them that much closer to what is feeling like an inevitable AFC South title. Indianapolis has talent and could compete when they play their best, but they now have no margin for error if they hope to qualify for the playoffs. The Texans have won five straight at home, and the Colts have hardly been anyone's idea of road warriors this season. To win on the road against the hottest team in the league is probably a bit too much to expect from this team at this point. My pick: Houston
Atlanta at Green Bay - In the frozen tundra, two ice cold teams will square off. Both teams have fall under hard times this season, with significant losing streaks at just about the most inopportune time. Atlanta took themselves out of the running for the playoffs with their current four game losing streak, while the Packers three game losing streak has their season pretty much done, as well. At least Green Bay has been close in each of those three losses, although it should be noted that their last loss was a home loss to the Cardinals, who are not exactly anyone's idea of a powerhouse team. But the Falcons have lost some bad games this season, as well, and three of the four losses in their current streak have been quite decisive. This is a hard game to predict, because neither team has been playing well, and it is all too easy to picture each making the same mistakes - mental and strategic - that have placed them in the dubious position that each team finds themselves entering this game. But somebody's surely going to win, even if a scoreless tie might feel like a possibility here. With the Packers having just released their coach, my guess is that they might come out a bit more fired up than usual, and at least use their home field advantage - traditionally one of the best in the league - to their benefit this time, which they obviously failed to do last weekend. My pick: Green Bay
New Orleans at Tampa Bay - Earlier this season, Tampa Bay managed to shock the Saints with an upset win at the Superdome. For a brief while, everyone was marveling at the Buccaneers offense, and how they seemed to be competitive this season. Meanwhile, the Saints struggled to get their first win the next week at Cleveland. Since then, the two teams have gotten a bit back to normal. The Bucs started really struggling, and New Orleans is one of the elite teams in the league, now with people marveling at their offensive firepower. They did get upset in their last game at Dallas, and so they need to get back to winning to still have a chance to take away home field advantage from the Rams. Despite their earlier win this season, the Bucs likely simply do not have enough in the tank to get past the Saints again, and pull off the unlikely sweep. My pick: New Orleans
Denver at San Francisco - I read a headline recently that suggested that the 49ers have no excuse for being as bad as they have been this season. Not sure myself, although my suspicion is that the loss of quarterback Jimmy Garroppollo had something to do with that. That said, I think that expectations were a bit too high - unrealistically high - as some Niners fans seemed almost to be making Super Bowl reservations for their team. If this season has revealed anything, it is that the 49ers need more than merely a hot quarterback to get them to the Promised Land. This weekend, they have to face a tough Broncos team that had beaten three playoff contenders in three consecutive games - two on the road! Yes, Denver looked dead in the water prior to that, struggling at 3-6, and looking well out of the playoff picture. But they ended six-game winning streaks in two consecutive games, first ending the Chargers hot streak, then ending the Steelers hot streak, before beating the Bengals convincingly in Cincinnati. Now, the Broncos appear to be red hot themselves, and they have a solid defense, and an offense that, at least for now, seems to have resolved some of the issues that they were facing for several seasons now, including at points earlier this season. Denver is picking up steam at the right time, and they clearly are fighting for something, for a shot at making these playoffs, this year. It seems unlikely that the 49ers would be the team to stem the Broncos surge, with the way these teams are going. My pick: Denver
Cincinnati at L.A. Chargers - Let's see. The Chargers are one of the hottest teams in the league, and the Bengals are...well, not. The Chargers have home field advantage, and the Bengals do not. The Chargers have a shot at catching the Chiefs and winning home field advantage, and the Bengals do not. The Chargers have proven themselves by beating some legitimate playoff contenders, like the Titans, the Seahawks, and the Steelers, and the Bengals have not. It is hard not to notice the trend. Plus, let's face it, Cincinnati has a history of choking. And despite looking good and full of promise earlier this season, the Bengals have begun to sputter and collapse, pretty much right on time. Sure, on any given Sunday, an upset can happen, and any one team might beat the other. And also true, the Chargers were recently upset, at home, to the Broncos. But winning this game might be just too tall of an order for Cincy, and it feels like madness to even think about making that some kind of a prediction. Much safer to go with the home team here. My pick: L.A. Chargers
Philadelphia at Dallas - Another huge showdown, with a tin of playoff implications. Not only are both teams still alive and fighting to make the playoffs, but both still have realistic hopes to win the division title, as well. But in order to do that, they both need to win this game, and only one will actually emerge on top. Philadelphia surely needs to win this one if they want to have any hopes of wining the division, or even of qualifying for the playoffs in hopes of defending their title. Dallas, however, are playing better than they have in a couple of years, and are getting hot at the right time. Their defense is tough and physical, and their offense is producing enough to win important games. Can Philly stem that Cowboys tide? With a win, the Eagles would move into a first place tie with Big D, But if Dallas wins, they would seem almost assured of winning the division title. Such a huge game, and a tough game to call. But with Dallas being such a tough place to play, and with the 'Boys playing their best, that should prove to be able to knock off the Eagles yet again, and inch closer to that division title. My pick: Dallas
Pittsburgh at Oakland - This is another game where one team holds all, or at least most, of the cards, and the other is...well, the Raiders. Yes, the Raiders have home field advantage...sort of. I mean, they will be playing in Oakland for another year or two, right? Maybe? And their home crowd has no real reason to come out and passionately support their 2-10 team. Most likely, there will be quite a few Steelers fans coming out, taking a road trip to go see the black and gold in Oakland in the beautiful Bay area, taking advantage of the milder weather. The Steelers are still in the lead in the AFC North, although it is a much smaller lead than it was just a couple of weeks ago, so they are starting to need to win these games. Pittsburgh has one of the most dangerous offense in the league, and the Raiders have one of the worst defenses in the league. Much like with the Bengals, you know that on any given Sunday, anything can happen. But this just seems really unlikely. Have to go with the safe bet here, and that is not favorable to the Oakland Raiders. My pick: Pittsburgh
Detroit at Arizona - Wow! Two seriously losing franchises square off. Wins are relatively rare for both this season, so this is a golden opportunity for each to grab a rare win. The Cardinals have home field advantage, although their home record of 1-5 on the year hardly makes it feel like a huge advantage in their favor. Then again, the Lions road record of 1-4 is hardly more impressive. Still, Detroit has the better team. They have a productive offense, at least at times. And as bad as the Lions have looked at times this season - and they have hardly looked really good at any point - they just have not completely collapsed with the regularity that the Cardinals have this year. Both teams want another win, but I see only one team here that really has enough talent to warrant belief that they will win this one. My pick: Detroit
Sunday Night Football
L.A. Rams at Chicago - Another huge game, with potential playoff implications, particularly in terms of positioning. The Rams are happy that they clinched the NFC West division title for a second straight season. Yet, they still need to win this tough game to stay ahead of New Orleans. But Los Angeles will have to do that against a Bears team that should be motivated following a tough loss at the Giants last weekend. Chicago will be playing a rare (for them) nationally televised game, and will benefit from playing in likely frigid Soldier Field. How much will the cold weather, and the tough Bear defense, slow down the Greatest Show on Turf 2? That if a difficult question to answer. My guess is that the Rams will not put up record numbers this week, like they did in their last nationally televised game against the Chiefs. They still can win, but this one will be very tough. I like the Bears to play well, and pull off an upset here. My pick: Chicago
Monday Night Football
Minnesota at Seattle - What a game! Huge playoff implications here with this one, as both these teams are desperately trying to hang onto playoff positioning, fighting for one of the remaining Wild Card spots. The Vikings lost last weekend, and need to win now, to stop the bleeding, before this becomes a losing streak at the most inopportune time. But Seattle, against that defense, and a tough and physical offense, and against the 12th man? That's a tell order, and the Vikings have hardly been road warriors this season. This should be a really good game, and although Minnesota could win this game, my own expectations are that they won't. My prediction: Seattle
In case you missed it, I made a mistake in thinking that the Patriots and Dolphins would be playing this week's Thursday Night Football game. Usually, I give Thursday and Monday Night Football games more attention and write previews in greater details, so I did that (accidentally) with the Patriots and Dolphins game.
So, here is what I wrote and already published, but which it seemed appropriate to share here again nonetheless:
New England Patriots (9-3)
v.
Miami Dolphins (6-6)
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins - I do not always want to be predictable when making my picks for the NFL. But sometimes, you have to take a safe bet. Up until this year, for example, the Browns more often than not were a safe bet to lose. And on the flip side, in quite a few years, the Patriots have been a safe pick to win the vast majority of times. They don't always win, of course. But if you pick against them, more often than not, they are going to make you pay. So, while the Dolphins looked good last weekend in beating the Bills, and while they are still in the hunt for the playoffs, I have a hard time picking them to win this game. Now, they do have home field advantage in their favor, and that is not necessarily insignificant. Remember, the Dolphins are 5-1 at home so far this season. And I could see a scenario where they surprise the Pats. They have done it before, such as in the 2004 season, when they stunned the Pats with two touchdowns in the final minute and change of play for a memorable comeback win. And they have beaten New England more recently than that, as well. Their defense can be tough, and their offense, while not consistent, can be effective. Maybe Ryan Tannehill can have a solid game. Maybe the Miami defense steps up in a big way, and shuts down, or at least contains, Brady and New England. Maybe the Fins benefit from familiarity against a division rival. But we are talking the Patriots here. You remember, Belichick and Brady? So, while the Fins could win, it is difficult to enter a game like this and expect that they actually will win. Would I be shocked to see the Dolphins win? No, not really. However, I see how the Patriots have won eight of their past nine games, and how they have a huge lead in this division, and a real chance to at least qualify for a playoff bye, if not even possibly home field advantage, which means more to them than it does even for most teams. And I see that they have a chance to outright clinch the division title should they win this one in Miami. And I see Bill Belichick, working week after week to relentlessly prepare his team against every upcoming opponent. And I see an offense led by arguably the greatest, most driven quarterback in league history, and that offense sure seems to be clicking just lately. And I see a defense that might not be the most dominant unit in the league, but that does enough far more often than not to allow the offensive production to stand for a win. And I see the special teams that is an asset, and not a liability. And most importantly, I see the net result of all of this, with the Patriots enjoying one successful season after another, and how this season sure seems to be leaning in that direction, too. Then, I look at the other side, and see a Dolphins side that seems to be struggling once again. Yes, they won last week, but that was at home, to Buffalo. Miami has not won consistently since they managed to start the season undefeated with three wins in their first three games. The offense struggles, and the defense has lapses. It is hard to forget that the Patriots picked the Dolphins apart, 38-7, earlier this season, handing the then undefeated Dolphins their first loss of the season, and how Miami seemed to see their season destabilized after that. After all, the Fins have failed to win consecutive games ever since losing that first meeting with the Pats. So, while it is hard not to be impressed that the Fins are 5-1 at home so far this year, and it would not be shocking to see them beat New England (some might say stun, but not I), it just does not seem like a safe bet to actually predict such a scenario. Because, this is the Patriots, and they far more often than not seem to win exactly these kinds of games, in exactly these kinds of situations. The Pats are not unbeatable. Frankly, no team in the league looks unbeatable this season. But when examining recent history, and the clear trends, it feels like madness to go against the Pats, and it also seems like the Dolphins are usually too unstable to predict them to win any given game, let alone a game as big as this, against an opponent as good as this. Sure, Miami could win. But my prediction will remain consistent with what I have seen in the past, recent and otherwise, and that implies that the visiting team is on a caliber far higher than the home team, and that the road team here should win...again. My pick: New England Patriots
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