Saturday, December 29, 2018

NFL 2018-19 Regular Season Finale Weekend

The final weekend of regular season action in the NFL. It goes without saying that a lot is riding on the outcome of many of these games.

The biggest game this weekend will be the latest one, when the Tennessee Titans host the Indianapolis Colts, in what amounts to a de facto playoff game. The winner lives on to fight again next weekend, officially in the playoffs, while the loser goes home.

Other teams also hope to punch a spot in the playoffs, including Minnesota, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. If the Ravens win at home against the Browns, they will win the AFC North, and effectively knock out Pittsburgh, barring the unlikely scenario that the Titans and Colts somehow tie. Minnesota hopes to beat the Bears, but Chicago is still trying to get that second seed, which a win coupled with a loss by the Rams would provide them.

Also, the Chiefs still need to officially clinch the number one seed in the AFC, which they can do if they beat the Raiders at home in KC, where they would hope to cement that the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Arrowhead Stadium. A loss by the Chiefs, coupled with a Chargers win, would give the Chargers the AFC West title and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

The Patriots should secure the second seed if they beat the Jets up at Foxboro. Houston would get that second seed in the unlikely scenario that they win and the Patriots lose.

So, those are the playoff scenarios. A lot of teams will have their fortunes riding on quite a few of the games tomorrow, although no single game has quite as much riding on it as that Titans-Colts game on Sunday Night Football.

Let's take a closer look at all of the scheduled games for this regular season finale weekend:






N.Y. Jets at New England Patriots - The Patriots have not exactly looked as good as they usually have in recent seasons. But there is one place that they have still been very, very good, and that is at their home in Gillette Stadium, up in Foxboro. They also are playing the Jets, who although are familiar with the Pats, are nevertheless a weaker than normal team. New England already clinched the division, but if they want those precious two weeks off due to the playoff bye - and this team probably really could use that right about now - than they will try and do everything possible to earn that by winning this game. That is bad news for the Jets, who are coming off a horrendous loss, and they have not fared well against the Pats in recent seasons. New York has lost 13 of the last 15 games that they have played against the Patriots, and they have not managed a win at Foxboro since the playoff meeting between these two teams in the 2010-11 season. Maybe the Patriots are not quite what we are used to seeing, but they should have enough to win this one and earn that playoff bye. My pick: New England 




Dallas at N.Y. Giants - This game really does not mean much, in terms of playoff implications. Dallas already clinched the division and the fourth seed, and they have no chance at moving up or down. The Giants, meanwhile, were eliminated by mid-season point, but have played much better in the second half of the season. It would be good for them to go out with a win, and the 'Boys really have no incentive to play their starters and risk injury trying to win this game, as this is their de facto bye before the playoffs. That should work in Big Blue's favor, and that is why I am picking my Giants to come out on top in this one. My pick: N.Y. Giants




Atlanta at Tampa Bay - Here is a game where neither team is going to the playoffs, so this has zero playoff ramifications. Both teams will be playing for pride. The Falcons managed a solid win last weekend at Carolina, but the Bucs are not on a massive losing streak like the Panthers were entering this one. Tampa Bay has played well at times this season, and their offense is still a strong and potentially explosive one. Of course, Atlanta should know something about explosive offenses, given the level of talent on this team, although it just never fully clicked for them this season. The Bucs should be motivated to finish out this season with a win, and playing at home, they should be able to get it. My pick: Tampa Bay



Carolina at New Orleans - Even though this game does feature a playoff-bound team, this game also should have no playoff ramifications, at least in terms of positioning. The Saints are locked in the top sport through the NFC playoffs, and cannot either move up or down. The only thing that could potentially have an impact on the playoffs would be injuries, and surely, the Saints will sit their starters so that they do not risk injury. The Panthers are on a massive losing streak of seven straight games, which is the longest such active streak, and they would love to end that streak here. This is their last opportunity, against a resting New Orleans team, which is why I will pick the Cats to pull this one off. My pick: Carolina




Detroit at Green Bay - Zero playoff ramifications here, too! The Packers managed to get a big win at the New York Jets last weekend, and it helped them to avoid a last place finish in the division, regardless of the outcome here. No, that distinction belongs once again to the Detroit Lions, who almost feel like a cursed team. And the Lions, remember, have historically played badly at Lambeau Field, having only won twice there in the last 27 years. But those two wins came in 2015 and 2017, so they were recent. However, that was not the same Lions team. Detroit made the playoffs two seasons ago, and finished with a winning record in three of the last four season prior to this one. But the Lions returned back to their losing form this season, and were never really close to serious playoff contention. Surprisingly, neither was Green Bay, which also has had a tumultuous season. But the Packers are good at their home stadium, and it is late December. They should be fired up after that big win last weekend, and surely want to give the loyal Cheeseheads a win to go out on this season. That is why I have to pick them for the win. My pick: Green Bay




Miami at Buffalo - Still another game without any playoff ramifications. The Bills have surprised many with how well they played, which was higher than the expectations entering this season. They now host the Dolphins in the last game this season for both squads, and Miami is, of course, coming off a crushing loss that eliminated their slim playoff hopes. Now, the southern Florida team heads up to frigid Orchard Park, where it is going to be below freezing. They have no incentive to really win, other than pride. And their pride has to be hurting them after that loss. All evidence points to the Bills pulling this one off to finish the season on a high. My pick: Buffalo




Jacksonville at Houston - Now, here is a game with some playoff ramifications riding on it. The Texans host the Jaguars, and they need to win to officially capture the AFC South title, which has stubbornly eluded them to this point. But simply put, a win and they finally get it. There is even a chance - slim, admittedly - that they could win the second seed, if they win and New England loses at home to the Jets. But whether that can happen or not, the Texans really need to win in order to get that valuable home playoff game, and all expectations should be that they win this one. My pick: Houston



San Francisco at L.A. Rams - The Rams do not have the luxury of simply resting in this game, although they also do not want to risk injuries to any starters. So, they really need to try and win this one, and the 49ers have been playing much better in the latter part of this season than they did earlier. They could prove tough, and that means that this could be tricky for the Rams. What they obviously would want is to grab a big lead early, and then sit their starters down for the remainder of the game to hang onto the win to clinch the second seed, because a loss here, coupled with a win by the Bears in Minnesota, would mean that the Rams would have to play on Wildcard weekend and not get that extra week of rest. Not sure if they take a huge lead or not early, but they should have enough to win this one and finally, officially clinch the second seed. My pick: L.A. Rams




Oakland at Kansas City - Kansas City knows what is at stake here. They are in the playoffs, but there is a world of difference between being the number one seed, and the fifth seed. They could outright win home field advantage and that valuable playoff bye simply by winning this divisional home game against a weaker opponent, or risk having to win every game on the road as the fifth seed in order to get to the Super Bowl. That is a huge difference, yet that is what may happen if they fail to beat Oakland, and then see the Chargers win. Frankly, if they cannot beat the Raiders at Arrowhead, then they surely also do not deserve home field advantage throughout the playoffs. But no one has held the Chiefs to under 26 points this season thus far, and with everything on the line, there is no reason not to expect them to put up a solid amount of points, and even to bury the likely over-matched Raiders underneath an avalanche of points to secure that top seed finally, once and for all. My pick: KC Chiefs



Chicago at Minnesota - Here is a game with playoff implications for both teams. The Bears need to win, and need the Rams to lose, to clinch the second seed in the NFC playoffs, and earn that playoff bye. The Vikings need to win simply to outright clinch a playoff berth. So a lot is riding on the outcome of this game! The Bears have a decent offense, and a very solid defense. The Vikings have an offense that should have been elite, but did not live up to that billing too often this season. Yet, here we are, the final week, and the Vikings have a chance to produce and earn the win, and finally punch their ticket into the playoffs, where everyone expected them to be at the beginning of the season. The Bears have a chance, but my guess is that the Vikings pull off the win and reach the postseason. My pick: Minnesota




L.A. Chargers at Denver - The Chargers need to win this game, against a weak and clearly flustered and frustrated Broncos team that has not recovered from the stunning losses that effectively eliminated them from postseason contention. But Los Angeles needs this win to keep their slim hopes of a division title, and along with it the number one seed throughout the AFC playoffs, alive. Even if that does not happen, this could be a good tune-up to stay fresh in the likely scenario that they have to play next weekend, on the road against either Baltimore or Pittsburgh. They would love another crack at Baltimore, most likely, although that is not a guaranteed win. But they should certainly have enough to win this one in Denver. My pick: L.A. Chargers




Cleveland at Baltimore - For the Ravens, it all comes down to this. Everything is riding on the outcome of this game. Win, and they not only reach the playoffs, but earn a home game once there as AFC North champs. Lose, and they are out. It really is as simple as that. Baltimore has the number one defense both in terms of yards and points allowed. They are playing some of the best football in the league right now, and they are at home against a weaker opponent. They have every reason to win this game. But it also should be remembered that they were in a somewhat similar position last season, and they lost that regular season finale in a shocking result. That should serve as even stronger motivation to finally get the job done this time around, however. Really, based on what we have seen, there is no reason to believe that the Ravens will fail to get the job done in this contest, having been handed the golden opportunity like this. My pick: Baltimore



Philadelphia at Washington - Neither of these teams had seasons that exactly met expectations. Philadelphia won the Super Bowl last year, and so naturally, there was speculation about the possibility that they might repeat. They still might, if they qualify for the playoffs, and then get hot, but that is a big "if." In fact, the Eagles do not control their own destiny, and whatever they do in this game, win or lose, will not even  matter if the Vikings beat the Bears, because a Minnesota win ends Philly's season prematurely. Washington, for that matter, looked like they might cruise to a division title when they were looking strong and had a solid lead in the NFC East earlier this season. But they got hit hard suddenly with key injuries, especially at quarterback, and this helped to have their season completely unravel. They were officially eliminated by the loss last weekend, but their season probably really ended well before that. So, this game means something for the defending champions, and they clearly want to win to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive, and they have to then hope that Chicago does their job and beats Minnesota, which is not a sure thing at all. But the Eagles should have enough left in their tank to come out of this one with a win. My pick: Philadelphia



Cincinnati at Pittsburgh - This is another game involving a Pennsylvania team that hopes to qualify for the playoffs, but needs serious help in hopes that a purple and gold team will somehow lose. The Eagles need the Vikings to lose in the NFC, and the Steelers are desperately hoping that the Ravens lose in the AFC. If that happens, the Pittsburgh wins, then they will win the division, and punch their ticket. But if Baltimore wins, then the Steelers have to hope that the Colts and Titans somehow tie in the Sunday Night Football game, which most people feel is very unlikely. And all of that goes out the window if Pittsburgh themselves fail to take care of business by winning, of course. But while there is plenty of room to doubt that the Steelers will get lucky enough with outside games to find themselves qualifying for the postseason, there is little doubt that they should at least have enough to win this game against a weak division rival, at the very least. My pick: Pittsburgh




Arizona at Seattle - The Seahawks are in the playoffs. Yet, if they lose this, and if Minnesota wins - big "if's in both cases - then they could find themselves as the lowest seed in the playoffs. Not sure how much that matters or not, but in any case, Seattle should have more than enough in their tank to beat the Cardinals, even if they rest their starters for much of the game. The Cardinals are possibly the worst team in the league. It is not impossible that the Seahawks rest their starters from the beginning, and the Cardinals find a way to win. But most likely, Arizona falls short in this one anyway, frankly. Just not a very good football team in the desert, and it is hard to picture them thriving this weekend in the Pacific Northwest. My pick: Seattle



Sunday Night Football



Indianapolis at Tennessee - This is probably the biggest game of this upcoming weekend! For all intents and purposes, this is a playoff game, because the winner advances, and the loser goes home. Yes, the winner officially qualifies for the postseason, and may even win the division, if the Houston Texans lose (which seems unlikely). But regardless of whether or not the winner of this game has a chance at winning the division, what is on the line is surviving for another weekend, and being rewarded with a playoff berth. That means something, obviously, and so both teams will come out swinging. The clear reality is this: the Colts have that dangerous offense, and the Titans have a bruising defense. Both teams have gotten hot lately, and so that makes the stakes even higher. The game is in Tennessee, but it is unclear how much that will be beneficial, or help to determine this game. What the Titans need to do to win is to pound the Colts defense with a ball control offense that relies heavily on a solid running game, and then to contain Indy with that defense the rest of the time. Really, that seems to be the big question in terms of the outcome of this contest, as to whether or not they will be able to do that. It is a tough game, and it is easy to picture either team winning this one, frankly. That is how closely matched these two teams are. But someone has to win, right? In the end, I am going to go with the home team. My pick: Tennessee

No comments:

Post a Comment