Monday, December 3, 2018

NFL 2018-19 Week 13 Review: Upsets Galore!

Yesterday's NFL games were fascinating, and a reminder of how exciting and unpredictable the league can be at this time of the year. Quite a few teams who looked like serious playoff contenders not long ago suddenly look suspect right now following losses yesterday. That includes the Panthers, the Packers, the Falcons, and the Bengals, all of whom looked like they were at least going to make serious runs to qualify for the postseason just weeks ago, only to suffer collapses late in the season, which has them all reeling and on the brink of elimination. All of them lost yesterday, and the Packers, specifically, fired their coach right after the upset home loss to lowly Arizona.

Those were not the only upsets, either. The Steelers looked like serious candidates for home field advantage just about eight or nine days ago. But now, after dropping their second straight, they are looking like a team that has to watch their back not to allow the Ravens to possibly catch up with them in their own division. Minnesota had a chance to make up some crucial ground against Chicago, who had lost to the Giants yesterday, but winning up in Foxboro is a very tall order. Most shockingly, however, the Colts not only lost to Jacksonville, and had their five-game winning streak snapped as a result, but they are now on the outside and looking in as the playoffs loom nearer.

Yet, all of this remained in the backdrop to the much larger controversy regarding Kareem Hunt. It appears that some are blasting the NFL's handling - or rather, possible mishandling - of this latest controversy, which bears some striking resemblance to the Ray Rice episode going a few years back.




         




N.Y. Giants 30, Chicago 27 (OT) - The G-Men went from not having scored 30 points or more in three years, to having scored 30 or more for a third time this season, and twice in recent weeks. They are not likely to mount a serious run to the playoffs, but this likely bodes well for the future. It took overtime against a determined Chicago team that has been one of the strongest in the NFC all season long. But the Giants used home field advantage, and hung on against a challenging Bears rally to force overtime, to earn a solid win, their third in four games, following a dismal 1-7 start to the season. My pick: Inaccurate



Tampa Bay 24, Carolina 17 - Carolina is going in a clear direction, and it is not a good one. Just about one month ago, the Panthers stood at 6-2 on the season at the midway point, and looked to one and all like a serious playoff contender at the very least. The Saints kept threatening to run away with the division, yet week after week, Carolina kept winning to stay right on their heels. Then, just like that, it all started to unravel, and in a hurry. This latest loss to Tamp Bay was their fourth straight loss, and this streak has taken them from elite status in the NFC, to no longer controlling their own destiny as the final weeks approach. Tampa Bay is in a perfect spoiler team position, and they are dangerous, with a potentially explosive offense. But if the Panthers want to be regarded rightly as a playoff caliber team, these are the kinds of tests that they need to pass, and they failed. A solid win for the Bucs, their second in a row. For Carolina, however, it is clear that something is really wrong. They never really did recover from the Super Bowl loss, and they need to really examine what has gone wrong since. My pick: Inaccurate



Denver 24, Cincinnati 10 - The Bengals are one of those cosmetic teams. Ever since the era of Sam Wyche and Boomer Esiason started going sour, the Bengals just seem too predictably middle of the road. Gone are the days when this team surprises a ton of people, and suddenly competes for the AFC Championship. In the 1980's, they twice won the AFC and went to the Super Bowl, losing the two Super Bowls by a combined 9 points. Those might have been disappointing results, but at least they were competitive and contenders. These Bengals are too predictable, year after year. They either are good enough to make the playoffs, but not win a postseason game, or they are simply not even good enough to make it there, period. This season, it is the latter. Facing a must win against red hot Denver, in a game that both teams need to possibly qualify for that final Wildcard spot, the Bengals might have taken advantage of home field advantage. They might have managed some points with an offense that sometimes looks really good. But they did not, and Denver dominated, with the defense consistently containing the Bengals largely lifeless and ineffective offense, and Denver producing enough points on their own to easily earn a win. Denver has surprised many with their solid football play of late, which has seen them pull off three straight wins against playoff contenders. But is anyone really surprised that the Bengals, who started the season 3-0, and still looked solid not long ago at 5-3, have seen their luck completely dry up? Not I. Denver is a franchise that seems to produce regular surprise outcomes in their favor, and that is why they regularly have periods where they reach Super Bowls and win championships. Cincinnati could learn a thing or two from them.   My pick: Accurate



Arizona 20, Green Bay 17 – The results here were so bad, that the Green Bay Packers decided to fire head coach Mike McCarthy immediately after the game. It had been a tight game, but Arizona placekicker Zane Gonzalez slit the uprights on a 44-yard field goal with 1:41 left to give his team a narrow lead. Not too much later, Green Bay's Mason Crosby missed a 49-yard attempt as time expired, preserving the Cardinals 20-17 win. .When you enter a season expecting to reach the playoffs and contend, and you have an all-star as your quarterback, and then you lose, at home, to a team like the Arizona Cardinals in a must-win situation, then maybe indeed it is time. Who knew that a lowly team from the desert with nothing but a chance to play spoilers could come in and pull off a rather amazing win in one of the most storied stadiums in all of sports? But that is exactly what the Cardinals, who entered the game with a 2-9 record, managed to do. And so, it was off with the coach’s head after the game, as playoff expectations were dashed. Green Bay has a solid defense, and one of the premiere quarterbacks in the league, and possibly of all time. Now, they will start fresh, with a new coach, and hope for new results. Indeed, they should be better than 4-7-1 and well out of the playoff picture at this point.   My pick: Inaccurate




Houston 29, Cleveland 13 - The Texans earned their 9th straight win – a franchise record – with turnovers and solid play from both their offense and defense. Baker Mayfield completed 29 of 43 passes for 397 yards and one touchdown, but he also had three INT’s. Houston’s Deshaun Watson completed 22 of 31 passes for 224 and one touchdown, with seven of those passes going to DeAndre Hopkins for 91 yards. Lamar Miller added 103 yards on 19 carries on the ground for the Texans, and Houston just keeps rolling, and getting closer and closer to that division title. This was another loss for the Browns, although hardly a terrible or embarrassing loss for them. My pick: Accurate



Jacksonville 6, Indianapolis 0 - Of all of yesterday's games, this result was the most unexpected, and stunning. Jax looked dead in the water, with little hope or reason to play anything resembling inspired football. And the Colts just looked like they were rolling over opponents, on their way to a major, even historical, level recovery to the playoffs, behind some amazing play by that offense, led by Luck. Who could possibly have foreseen a scenario where the Jaguars pitch a shut out against that Indianapolis offense, one of the best and most talented units in the league? Yet, that is exactly what they managed to do, and they ended an Indianapolis five-game winning streak, and halted the Colts momentum this season, in the process. The wildest fact was that Jacksonville had lost eight straight games prior to this rather shocking win. This was the game that left me the most surprised, out of all of the upsets yesterday.  My pick: Wildly Inaccurate!




L. A. Rams 30, Detroit 16 - The Lions are a bit like another big cat team of this league - the Bengals. They are decent sometimes, they can make it to the playoffs. But they never seem to win any playoff games, and the only team that has gone longer than Detroit without winning a single playoff game would be Cincinnati. Both teams have the same mode: either they are good enough to qualify for the playoffs, but never to win a game, or they are not good enough to make it at all. And just like the Bengals, the Lions are not going to make it this season. They looked decent earlier in the year, and seemed like maybe they might have a chance to get there. But they will not, because they just do not have it in them to raise their level of play. No matter who the coach is, no matter who the quarterbakc is, no matter who the other offensive or defensive stars are, this team keeps failing their fans, year after year. The only time that the Detroit faithful can see a winner in town is when the visiting team ranks among the elites, like the Rams yesterday. The Rams have struggled often times in this league, as well. Just a few seasons ago, they too were consistently losing. Now, they are 11-1, with one of the best offenses and overall teams in the league. They usually win these days, and you just kind of knew that they were going to beat the Lions. And they did, fairly convincingly, as predicted, because they can raise their level of play to elite status every now and then. They did at times in the 1970's and 1980's. They did in the late 1990's and early 2000's. And the last two season, they are doing so again. Detroit? Well, this looks a whole lot like this franchise did in recent seasons, and like they did in the 1970's and 1980's. And in the 1990's, with maybe the one exception of that 1991 season. And this looks like the seasons that they have had since, as well. Either they are good enough to make it to the playoffs and disappoint their fans once there, or they are not even good enough to get there. The Lions won the NFL Championship in 1957. Since then, one playoff win, in 1991 - 27 years ago! One playoff win in 61 years, and their struggles have almost come to symbolize the city of Detroit that they represent. The people of Detroit deserve better, in both cases. My pick: Accurate




Baltimore 26,  Atlanta 16 - Baltimore's defense did their job in a big road win at Atlanta yesterday, and the Ravens offense also did enough to earn the important, even crucial, win. With four games remaining, they have two really tough road games at Kansas City and at L.A. against the Chargers, so they could not afford to drop a winnable game like this one. But they managed the feat, and stay in position to qualify for the playoffs. My pick: Accurate


   
Miami 21, Buffalo 17 - Buffalo’s offense managed more than twice the amount of yards as Miami, and held on to the ball longer, producing far more first downs. Yet, they lost, mostly because of turnovers. Josh Allen had an up and down performance. He completed 18 of 33 passes for 231 yards and two touchdowns, both to receiver Zade Jones. But Allen also also had two INT’s. Allen also led his team with 135 yards rushing on nine carries. Miami’s Ryan Tannehill completed 16 of 24 passes for 137 yards, with three touchdowns and one interception. With the win, the Fins improve to 6-6, and stay alive in the playoff hunt, although this loss effectively kills what slim hopes Buffalo had to squeak into the postseason. My pick: Inaccurate



Tennessee 26, N.Y. Jets 22 - The Titans looked like they were flirting with a disastrous loss that would truly have ended their playoff hopes. But they came back and rallied, and Gang Green rather predictably allowed it to happen. So, the Titans managed to keep their playoff hopes alive, and in fact, got a boost by the upset loss that the Colts suffered. It has been a roller coaster kind of season for Tennessee this year, but at least right now, they surely must feel like they are on a high. My pick: Accurate



Kansas City 40, Oakland 33 - The Chiefs earned the win, as expected. But they did not look as unbeatable as they often have this season, and this was a must-win situation, in terms of the division hopes and their chances for home field advantage throughout. That whole Hunt situation is casting a cloud over the team, and their playoff aspirations. They no longer look as clearly favored in the AFC as they did not too long ago. With the Chargers right on their heels, they are not even a lock for the AFC West division title, which for a team at 10-2, is highly unusual. And Kansas City has three really tough games coming up: against the Ravens, against the Chargers, then at Seattle, before finishing up the regular season at home against the Raiders again. Nothing is as certain as it appeared to be not too long ago. But still, at least they did their job and earned this predictable win yesterday.  My pick: Accurate



Seattle 43, San Francisco 16 - Seattle needed to take care of business and get this win, and they did that. The 49ers posed a potential problem as a possible spoiler, but the Seahawks earned a convincing win, which was also their third straight win. They did that by jumping all over the Niners early, and then not letting up or looking back. Seattle will have some tough games remaining, particularly against Kansas City and Minnesota, so they could not afford to be upset in this game. But a blowout win was the kind of statement that they needed to make, and they made it.  My pick: Accurate



New England 24, Minnesota 10 - New England looks more and more like what we expect them to be. They win again, reinforcing just how tough they are to beat up in New England. This was a painful loss to the Vikings, because they fail to capitalize on Chicago's loss earlier in the day, and they also now lose some ground in terms of playoff positioning. Both Dallas and Seattle move ahead of Minnesota now in the NFC playoff picture, and Washington has a chance to do the same with a win over Philly tonight. But beating the Pats up at Foxboro is a tall order for any team. The fact that no team has managed that feat so far this season is a testament to that fact. The Patriots won their second in a row, and their eighth in the last nine games, as they continue to position themselves for one of the AFC's top seeds. My pick: Accurate




Sunday Night Football

L.A. Chargers 33, Pittsburgh 30 - For whatever the reason, this game really reminded me of the rivalry that these two teams had way back in the 1994-95 season.  That season, the Steelers seemed to be establishing themselves as the clear cut favorites in the AFC. They entered a regular season finale with a 12-3 record, but lost what seemed like a meaningless regular season finale to them even thought it meant everything to the Chargers, who won the second seed in the playoffs, and a playoff bye, with the win. Later in the playoffs, the Chargers would truly stun the hometown Steelers in the AFC title game, on their way to their only Super Bowl appearance in franchise history, which they lost. That is not to say that yesterday's game or this season more generally, is identical. Far from it. The game meant a lot to both teams yesterday. But the Chargers pulling off a big upset against a favored Steelers team that looked like one of the elite units in the AFC, and the NFL? Yeah, that did feel reminiscent of 1994. In fact, the Chargers needed that win to stay within striking distance of the Kansas City Chiefs, who also won, but may be feeling a bit of the turmoil regarding Kareem Hunt. A truly enormous win for the Chargers, who may be quietly positioning themselves as one of the elite teams entering the playoffs. This loss likely does not seriously hurt the Steelers chances to win the division, but it has to be making them feel a bit uncomfortable, as they keep losing playoff positioning and sliding further downward in the past two weeks, which were both losses. My pick: Inaccurate


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