New England Patriots (9-3)
v.
Miami Dolphins (6-6)
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins - I do not always want to be predictable when making my picks for the NFL. But sometimes, you have to take a safe bet. Up until this year, for example, the Browns more often than not were a safe bet to lose. And on the flip side, in quite a few years, the Patriots have been a safe pick to win the vast majority of times. They don't always win, of course. But if you pick against them, more often than not, they are going to make you pay. So, while the Dolphins looked good last weekend in beating the Bills, and while they are still in the hunt for the playoffs, I have a hard time picking them to win this game. Now, they do have home field advantage in their favor, and that is not necessarily insignificant. Remember, the Dolphins are 5-1 at home so far this season. And I could see a scenario where they surprise the Pats. They have done it before, such as in the 2004 season, when they stunned the Pats with two touchdowns in the final minute and change of play for a memorable comeback win. And they have beaten New England more recently than that, as well. Their defense can be tough, and their offense, while not consistent, can be effective. Maybe Ryan Tannehill can have a solid game. Maybe the Miami defense steps up in a big way, and shuts down, or at least contains, Brady and New England. Maybe the Fins benefit from familiarity against a division rival. But we are talking the Patriots here. You remember, Belichick and Brady? So, while the Fins could win, it is difficult to enter a game like this and expect that they actually will win. Would I be shocked to see the Dolphins win? No, not really. However, I see how the Patriots have won eight of their past nine games, and how they have a huge lead in this division, and a real chance to at least qualify for a playoff bye, if not even possibly home field advantage, which means more to them than it does even for most teams. And I see that they have a chance to outright clinch the division title should they win this one in Miami. And I see Bill Belichick, working week after week to relentlessly prepare his team against every upcoming opponent. And I see an offense led by arguably the greatest, most driven quarterback in league history, and that offense sure seems to be clicking just lately. And I see a defense that might not be the most dominant unit in the league, but that does enough far more often than not to allow the offensive production to stand for a win. And I see the special teams that is an asset, and not a liability. And most importantly, I see the net result of all of this, with the Patriots enjoying one successful season after another, and how this season sure seems to be leaning in that direction, too. Then, I look at the other side, and see a Dolphins side that seems to be struggling once again. Yes, they won last week, but that was at home, to Buffalo. Miami has not won consistently since they managed to start the season undefeated with three wins in their first three games. The offense struggles, and the defense has lapses. It is hard to forget that the Patriots picked the Dolphins apart, 38-7, earlier this season, handing the then undefeated Dolphins their first loss of the season, and how Miami seemed to see their season destabilized after that. After all, the Fins have failed to win consecutive games ever since losing that first meeting with the Pats. So, while it is hard not to be impressed that the Fins are 5-1 at home so far this year, and it would not be shocking to see them beat New England (some might say stun, but not I), it just does not seem like a safe bet to actually predict such a scenario. Because, this is the Patriots, and they far more often than not seem to win exactly these kinds of games, in exactly these kinds of situations. The Pats are not unbeatable. Frankly, no team in the league looks unbeatable this season. But when examining recent history, and the clear trends, it feels like madness to go against the Pats, and it also seems like the Dolphins are usually too unstable to predict them to win any given game, let alone a game as big as this, against an opponent as good as this. Sure, Miami could win. But my prediction will remain consistent with what I have seen in the past, recent and otherwise, and that implies that the visiting team is on a caliber far higher than the home team, and that the road team here should win...again. My pick: New England Patriots
No comments:
Post a Comment