Los Angeles Chargers (10-3)
v.
Kansas City Chiefs (11-2)
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
A few weeks ago, the Chiefs visited Los Angeles to play the Rams in a huge game between the two teams with the best records in the NFL. It was a game that was initially supposed to be played in Mexico City.
Well, the Chiefs will be playing in yet another huge, nationally televised game again tonight, although they will not have to visit as far away as Mexico City, or even Los Angeles, this time around - although they will be playing that other Los Angeles NFL franchise in this game. They just do not have to go on the road again to do it. No, the Chiefs will be playing this game in the comfortable confines of their home at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri. Or, at least, they will be comfortable with their surroundings, as the conditions for the game are supposed to be anything but comfortable, as cold and rain are expected. That might just be what the Chiefs want for this huge game that very likely could determine who wins the AFC West - especially if KC wins, when they would take the division title outright on this very night with a win.
But don't overlook the Chargers. We have not heard about them this season like we have heard about the "Big Three" (Kansas City, New Orleans, and, of course, that other Los Angeles team - the Rams), but the Chargers have become one of the elite teams entering the final weeks of this season almost as quietly as anybody could.
One reason for that might have been that the Chargers lost their very first game at home, right out of the gates. Who did they lose to on opening day? Why, the Chiefs, of course. Yes, KC won that shootout, 38-28. In that game, the Chargers enjoyed some advantages, including better time of possession, and produced more first downs than KC managed. But they committed two turnovers, the Chiefs were better able to convert opportunities into points. That game was the introduction for most of us to Patrick Mahomes, who became the starter. He completed 15 of 27 passes for 256 yards and four touchdowns, with no interceptions. Rivers, meanwhile, completed 34 of 51 pass attempts for 424 yards. He threw three touchdowns, but also had one interception.
So, that first game had some bad news for the Chargers. But the good news? Well, they could return the favor this time. Yes, the Chiefs beat the Chargers at Los Angeles on that day, but the Chargers could pull this off. After all, these two teams are both in very different places than they were on that opening day.
First of all, the Chiefs have lost momentum. They still have the best record in the AFC, but they no longer look a mile ahead of everyone else. That offense was just too much, and they were fairly regularly blowing people out. They started off the season with a hot 5-0 record, and their offensive numbers and highlight reels just looked out of sight. But they did lose that aforementioned big Monday Night Football showdown with the Rams, and their defense sometimes looks like a serious vulnerability. Also, they no longer have their star running back, who is mired in a domestic abuse controversy. That means that they have yet to really establish that running aspect to their offense, which might be why they seem to not be scoring and producing yards at will against opponents, like they were not that long ago. This is still a dangerous offense, but tonight's game might actually be more about defenses and a conservative offensive plan, given the conditions. Frankly, there are serious questions about whether the Chiefs can even win a game like that.
The Chargers have one of the best defenses in the league. With KC's offense now looking a bit more limited - still dangerous, but no longer completely unstoppable and playing at all-time historical levels - the Chargers might have a chance. Maybe not to stop them, but at least to slow them down enough to give their own offense a chance to keep up. And make no mistakes, the Chargers have an elite offense themselves. Again, they might not make the headlines like the Chiefs do, but they have one of the best and most productive, even most explosive, offenses in the league, led by veteran quarterback Philip Rivers. They can, and most likely will, produce both yards and points.
In the end, I still like the Chiefs to win, if only because home field advantage, especially with foul weather expected, could play an important role. That is not to say that it would be surprising if the Chargers win, because it would not actually be all that surprising. I could picture the Chargers getting on a role and frustrating KC, and pulling off an enormous road win. Los Angeles has all the tools in place to keep this a close game, or even in taking it over at some point. But in making a prediction, the safer bet still feels like it favors the home team, albeit slightly.
My prediction: Kansas City Chiefs
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