According to Yevgenia Albats, an expert in Russian secret services and politics, Putin's rule in Russia is beginning to crumble. For a long time, there was this perception of Putin as a strong man. He seemed untouchable, almost invincible. It seemed that everyone agreed that he was a genius, although many in the West would have described him as an evil genius. He longed for the days of the Soviet Empire, when Moscow was the capital of a global superpower, and commanded respect and fear around the world. That was the country that Putin grew up in and came to serve his country in the KGB.
Putin took over from Boris Yeltsin as 1999 yielded to 2000. The Soviet Union had dissolved less than a decade earlier, and chaos had reigned supreme in Russia after that. All the Russians really wanted was stability. Putin, as a perceived strongman, seemed to give them that. And he seemed to restore some of their old superpower status. By the time of Trump's rise to the White House, many Americans believed that Putin actually had some control over Trump, and was able to successfully intervene in American elections. There was talk of him being able to alter elections in other Western European nations, as well. Again, this reinforced the perceptions that Putin was an absolute genius, and was successfully restoring Russia's influence and power, albeit in unconventional manners.
Here's the thing, though: The Soviet Union itself was never quite as powerful as it was perceived to be. In fact, the Soviet economy lagged far behind that of the other superpower, the United States, and by a considerable margin, at that. Much of the superpower status of the Soviet Empire was based on perception, as well as that sense of untouchability, which gave it a perceived invincibility. Also, it put so much into it's military industrial complex, that it was, in fact, a military superpower. This, I believe, was both it's greatest strength, as well as it's greatest weakness and, ultimately, it's Achille's heel. The notion that the Soviet Union could simply march into neighboring countries and control things to it's liking, as it had for much of the 20th century, particularly in eastern and central Europe, in the Warsaw Pact countries, led it to an ill-advised invasion of Afghanistan. It could be argued that it was the Chernobyl disaster, as well as the calamitous war in Afghanistan, that largely brought the Soviet Union to it's knees.
Of course, the living standards there also lagged behind many other countries. This was only exacerbated after the fall of the Soviet Union. While we here in the West - or perhaps particularly we Americans here in the United States - seemed to take absolute flee in our perceived victory in the Cold War, the Russians were struggling, reeling. They missed the more stable days of the Soviet Union, and the perception that it was a world power that commanded respect from the international community. This hardly seems difficult to understand. And Putin seemed to not only give voice to that, but also seemed to bring them some of that stability, and at least a bit of of the perception of being a restored superpower, and it made Putin very powerful and popular in Russia. Thus, Putin's power was only further entrenched in Russia.
If Putin managed to pull all of this off like a magic trick, seemingly making Russia almost a de facto superpower - at least a second tier kind of superpower - again, then all of that has seemingly come to a grinding halt this year. And much like with the Soviet Union, it was the militarism, the perception that Russia's military might would allow it to march into a neighboring country and force things more to their liking. He had already done that in Georgia, Ukraine, and in Chechnya, and enjoyed success. So it seemed to many around the world, as it must have seemed to him, that the success of the Russian invasion of Ukraine late in February would be a success.
But it was not a success. In fact, it has been a stunning failure. If Putin had hoped that it would highlight Russia's military might and capabilities, and restore it even further as a relative superpower, the opposite has happened instead. Now, Russia - and Putin along with it - looks more vulnerable than ever before. Russia's military looks weak and ineffective. And Putin, who once seemed invincible and untouchable, suddenly looks worried, like he sees the writing on the wall, that the end of his long rule over Russia is almost at an end.
It feels like in some respects, he outsmarted himself. Or, perhaps the West outsmarted him, with a wink and an encouraging nod to go ahead with the invasion, and then to arm Ukraine through the teeth. There is a reason why this war has gone on as long as it has already, and why it seems that, if anything, Ukraine is winning, and Russia is losing ground, and in more ways than one. Once again, an invasion that seemed like a sure thing, an inevitable outcome of Russian dominance, has gone quite the other way. And much like with the Soviet Union, it has pulled the curtain to reveal vulnerabilities in Moscow that were not necessarily apparent to the world before. Indeed, instead of Putin being seemingly a new Stalin, a new Soviet-style strongman, Putin now looks more vulnerable than he ever has. Those around him who were supportive and instrumental in the good times are now divided with the arrival of the bad times. Economic sanctions are hitting hard, and the war is not going well. And suddenly, someone betraying Putin is not unthinkable. Putin losing power is not unthinkable. In fact, it almost seems likely now.
Of course, none of this is a foregone conclusion, either. Yet, it seems clearer than ever that this invasion of Ukraine was ill-advised. A major mistake. And this one was part of Putin's grand strategy. A strategy that had worked brilliantly for more than two decades up to this point, and which had seemed to restore Russia's power and pride. Indeed, Russians were very supportive when it seemed that Putin's gambles were paying off, and making Russia larger, both literally and figuratively, before the world. Now that Russia and Putin seem, if anything, diminished, it seems that it will again be heading towards a future filled with uncertainty. And that begins with the uncertainty of a ruler who remains in power for now, but who's time left in power seems limited.
The clock is ticking.
This is what so many in the West, and perhaps especially here in the United States, seemed to want. And while I do not like Putin, I look at it a bit differently nevertheless.
My question is, are we going to learn from our own mistakes, and not allow ourselves the conceit of celebrating the downfall of a nation - Putin's Russia - before it also comes back to bite us in the butt? It seems clear to me that we certainly did not win the hearts and minds of Russians by beating our chests and proclaiming victory over them in the Cold War, and then standing by as they suffered. If a similar level of unrest and instability comes to pass in post-Putin Russia, are we going to make the same mistake? Or will we finally learn from the past, and make better decisions that will lead to a more promising future?
We had an excellent and trustworthy leader in Gorbachev back in the eighties and into the early nineties in Moscow. It feels like we squandered that opportunity, too busy trying to defeat the Soviet Union and bring it to it's knees to bother actually cooperating with him when he was extending the olive branch. Then later, when Russia could really have used our help, we were too caught up in our "victory" over them, and relishing in their diminished status, to seriously consider actually helping them get back on their feet and gain some dignity. The result was bitterness. The result was Putin, who became a rival to the West, and who now regularly threatens to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine and possibly even in other European nations should they intervene. That hardly feels particularly stable. If we see the end of Putin's regime, and there will be another era of instability in Russia, do we have it in us to act better, and treat them with some dignity, instead of celebrating our victory in humiliating them again?
Time will tell. And again, the clock is ticking.
Expert claims Putin is facing a collapse of his regime published in Daily Mail, November 4, 2022:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/expert-claims-putin-is-facing-a-collapse-of-his-regime/ss-AA13JyiD?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=23658c5187d74b14a933b1a34e4da966
Expert claims Putin is facing a collapse of his regime (msn.com)
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