All of the drama and the ups and downs for each team during the regular season is now over.
Now, the playoffs, also known as the "second season," sometimes, is here. From here on out, everything is magnified. Every big play, every turnover, every mistake. Teams will gamble, and perhaps they will win or lose those gambles. They will take chances, and they will make things happen. Or they won't.
Everything is magnified in the playoffs. The winner often is the team that survives their own mistakes better than the other team. Whoever wins advances, stays alive. Whoever loses goes home. It all begins this Wild Card Weekend, with a full slate of six games (almost half of all of the postseason games which will be played).
Let's take a look:
Saturday Games:
LA Rams (12-5) at Carolina Panthers (8-9)
For most of this season, the Los Angeles appeared to be a very good team. Most people seemed to consider them serious contenders for another Super Bowl run. Then they suffered two straight losses. Costly losses. And it dropped them from the top overall seed in the NFC to the fifth seed. Yet as the fifth seed, they face the Panthers, who are the only team with a losing record to qualify for this year's playoffs. Almost by default, as they were the least unimpressive team, ultimately, in the weak NFC South. Maybe the NFC should really do something about these kinds of imbalances.
Now on the surface, it might seem like the Rams should be heavy favorites. Indeed, they feel like the much better team of the two. Yet, we need to remember that these two teams actually met in Carolina about six or so weeks ago, and the Panthers won. Clearly, it is not a situation where the Rams are so much better that they should run away with this one.
Yet, these two teams are very different than they are now. I think that the Rams might grow more focused after those two losses, which came with the knowledge that their road to the Super Bowl will, indeed, have them on the road, and not (likely) playing any games at home in Los Angeles. The Rams feel like the better team, and that just is not something to overlook when making this prediction, even if Carolina got the better of them last time.
My pick: LA Rams
Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) at Chicago Bears (11-6)
This should be a tough game for both teams.
On the one hand, the Bears just beat the Pack last month in overtime. That was the game which virtually secured the NFC North title, and home field advantage for this one.
However, the Packers have some things on their side. First of all, the Bears were shaky last weekend, at home against Detroit. Secondly, Jordan Love will be back behind the helm. Also, Green Bay has a lot more playoff experience than do the Bears.
Yet, the Bears also have to be looking at the Packers as vulnerable. Love will be back, but he might be rusty. And the Packers have dropped four straight games, really almost backing into the playoffs. They should feel confident knowing that they beat Green Bay not long ago in Soldier Field. So they can do it again.
Expect a tough, tight, and likely low-scoring game. In the end, I expect the Bears to do what they have done well all season: find a way to win.
My pick: Chicago
Sunday Games:
Buffalo Bills (12-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)
The Bills were my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl. Maybe that was wishful thinking, but I am not going to simply abandon them now.
What is alarming for the Bills entering this postseason is that they have not won a road playoff game as a franchise since January of 1993, when they beat the Dolphins in Miami to qualify for Super Bowl XXVII against Dallas. That was 33 years ago. Since then, Buffalo has lost eight straight road playoff games. Indeed, head coach Sean McDermott and quarterback Josh Allen have never won a road playoff game. That includes some heartbreakingly close losses at Kansas City in the AFC Championship Games.
The Jaguars will host this game, having enjoyed an impressive 13-4 season. It is their second most winningest regular season, behind only the 14-2 campaign in 1999. The Jaguars earned home field advantage throughout and hosted the AFC title game that year, ultimately falling short to the Titans. This year, they look like a complete team. Solid and potentially explosive offense, and a tough defense.
Really, this should be a tough game. The two teams did not meet this season. So there is an absence of familiarity between the two franchises.
Jacksonville was more consistent. Yet, I will go out on a limb and predict the Bills to score a tough win in a tight contest to finally snap that dreadful road streak to advance.
My pick: Buffalo
San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
The Eagles earned their second NFC East title and the third overall seed in the NFC playoffs. Now, they begin their real title defense with a tough one against the 49ers.
Remember, these two teams are pretty much the most successful NFC teams in recent years. Between them, they have made the Super Bowl five times in the past eight seasons prior to this one. There is a ton of playoff experience on both sides. So expect a tough game.
Philly earned home field as division champs, yet the 49ers play tough defense. They can be physical, which can neutralize the cold weather advantage for the Eagles. Both teams lost tough games last weekend, although the 49ers lost at home to the top seeded Seahawks. Meanwhile, the Eagles rested their starters to have them healthy and ready for playoff time. That time is now.
Really, this could go either way. It would not be shocking (to me) to see the 49ers win, and neither would it be shocking to see the Eagles win. Indeed, I can see either team walking away with this one. Yet, the Eagles humbled the 49ers a few years ago in the playoffs, crushing them 31- 7 in the NFC title game en route to their first Super Bowl meeting against the Chiefs. But the next season, the 49ers came from behind to beat an Eagles team that was, at that time, 10-1. Philadelphia's entire season seemed to unravel, as they lost their confidence and even swagger.
In a tight contest, I expect San Fran to do just enough to get by.
My pick: San Francisco
LA Chargers (11-6) at New England Patriots (14-3)
The Patriots have been one of the most consistent teams all season long. This was easily the team's most successful season since their last Super Bowl run, back in the 2018-19 season, when they bested Patrick Mahomes and the KC Chiefs before beating the Rams in Super Bowl LIII.
New England is tough. Head coach Mike Vrabel was a part of the Patriots dynasty days in the 2000's, having won three Super Bowl rings (XXVI, XXVIII, and XXXIX). He has brought that winning sense of just doing your job back to Foxboro. This team is not glorious, filled with superstars and highlight material reels. No, they just get the job done quietly, without much fanfare. They minimize mistakes and are tough to beat.
The good news for the Chargers is that the Pats have seemed particularly vulnerable at home. All three of the losses suffered by the Pats were right here in Foxboro. They also barely got past the Falcons at home earlier in the season. So that should provide them some measure of hope entering this contest.
The bad news, however, is that the Chargers are a warm weather team forced to play in Foxboro in January, against a tough team that ranks among the better units on both offense and defense. The Patriots allowed only 18.8 points on average, behind only three other teams (Seattle, Houston, and Denver). New England's offense also was one of the best ranked units in the league, averaging almost 29 points per game. The Pats also do not generally tend to turn the ball over too much, averaging a little more than one turnover per game. So the Chargers cannot expect the Pats to beat themselves in this one.
With all of that, it feels to me that the Chargers have to play their absolute best game at this most crucial moment. On the road against New England. They have a chance, and head coach Jim Harbaugh tends to keep his teams well-disciplined on that score.
Still, I suspect that the Pats are used to winning. They have had winning days all season long, and there's no reason to think that all of that work and discipline on their end will suddenly unravel this weekend.
My pick: New England
Monday Night
Houston Texans (12-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
The good news for the Steelers is that they won last week's big showdown, clinching the AFC North title after a missed field goal by Ravens placekicker Tyler Loop.
However, that means that they host the Houston Texans, one of the teams that nobody wants to play at this point. The Texans have the longest active winning streak at nine games. They overcame a disastrous 0-3 start to their season, and were even 3-5 and looking shaky, before they began to play solid football. Very solid football.
Yes, this is a home game for the Steelers, which they earned by winning the AFC North title. And there are some things that can be promising signs for them. They have a veteran quarterback with a ton of playoff experience. They also have one of the best turnover ratios of any team in the NFL. Also, the Texans really struggled to beat the Colts last weekend in a game that they had to win to keep their division title hopes alive (in the end they won the game, but not the division).
Now here's the bad news: the Houston Texans were one of the few teams with a better overall turnover ratio than Pittsburgh this season. Houston had a very elite defense, and that should pose many problems for the Steelers, who ranked pretty low among NFL offenses. Defensively, the Steelers should be better, but the Texans can also be explosive on offense. Which means the Steelers will have to watch out.
Let's also remember that while the Steelers have fairly regularly been a playoff contender in recent season, they have not actually won a postseason game in the better part of a decade. So playoff experience is not really in their favor in this one, despite Aaron Rodgers having had a ton of playoff experience.
My expectations for this game are that the Texans will start to take over the game at some point late in the first half, but dictate the tempo of the game throughout the second half, effectively choking the life out of the Steelers.
My pick: Houston
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