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New England Patriots (14-3, 2-0 playoffs) at Denver Broncos (14-3, 2-0 playoffs)
Sunday, 3 pm EST
The early game is the AFC Championship Game. It features the two best franchises throughout this season on the AFC side. We all are familiar with both of these franchises reaching the AFC Championship Game, as well as the Super Bowl, plenty of times. New England has been to the Super Bowl 11 times, a record among all NFL teams. Denver has been there eight times, which ranks among the most of any team as well. They even met at this level a couple of times in the AFC title game before during the era of the Manning-Brady era. The Broncos won both of those meetings.
However, it has been a while since either of these two franchises has reached this level. Denver was last here back in the 2015-16 season, which was the last time that they won a Super Bowl title. For New England, this is the first time going this far in the playoffs since the 2018-19 season, back during the Brady-Belichick era, and they also happened to win that Super Bowl.
This game is being played at Mile High, and the altitude should give the Broncos some advantage. How much of an advantage is the real question. That alone will likely not be enough to secure a win for the home team.
While the Patriots ranked close to the top of the league on offense this season, and averaged over 28 points per game, they still are not necessarily going to be an explosive team in this game. That is mostly because of the Broncos having one of the toughest defenses in the league.
That said, Denver's offense was far from the most explosive unit in the league. And they will be without their starting quarterback, Bo Nix. So the real question is how his absence will impact the Broncos and their offense in this game. Especially since the Patriots also have one of the best rated defenses in the league. That defense has played intensely and contributed strongly to New England's two playoff wins thus far.
Past success does not necessarily translate to future success. Indeed, playing on their home field should be an advantage for the Broncos. It will not necessarily be enough for them to win. However, a very tough defense really helps. Also, it again bears repeating that Denver never ranked among the elite teams on offense this season. Yet, this team has proven that it can win when not scoring many points. Six of Denver's wins this season, including one of the playoff wins, came when they scored 20 points or less.
So Denver does not need to score a ton of points. But they particularly need to not make critical mistakes, as the Texans did last week against New England. If the Broncos commit turnovers like that, they will kill their chances of winning this one.
Still, I suspect that the Broncos survived to this point for a reason. Maybe this goes against logic, given that they are playing without their starting quarterback, their de facto MVP for the season. However, I am going to go with the Broncos for an (upset?) win in this one.
My pick: Denver
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