Personally, I am always fascinated by the last remaining unbeaten teams in the league. And since we had so many upsets and unbeatens taking a spill last season, we are down to three teams remaining with perfect records. Two in the AFC: the Pats and the Chiefs. Only one in the NFC: the 49ers. Each of them are in play on this first weekend in October, and each of them have winnable games. Only the Pats are on the road of the three, although you could probably argue that the Chiefs and Niners have better, more serious opponents in the Colts and the Browns. So, will one or more of them fall? How many undefeated teams remain after this weekend?
Otherwise, a lot of other teams are trying to establish themselves as contenders, as well. The Bears want to win that road game in London, which would be their fourth straight win. The Packers and Cowboys have a huge showdown in Big D. Buffalo and the Titans square off in what should be a very physical game. And the Chargers, Eagles, and Saints all try to win home games against presumably weaker teams in order to keep their winning ways intact. And, of course, there are numerous other scenarios, as well.
So, how will these games shape up this weekend? Here’s a closer look at each of the games to be played in Week 5:
Minnesota at N.Y. Giants – This is going to be a tough game, I think, for both teams. The Giants have managed to pull off two straight wins, and are looking good. Their offense has averaged 28 points in those two wins. Meanwhile, the defense had a great day, as they held an opponent to a mere field goal in terms of total points allowed, something that they had not done since way back in the 2012 season, when they were the defending Super Bowl champions, and still looked like an elite team at that point in the season (it was their sixth game). Their confidence has to be soaring, but they are taking on the Vikings, who are considerably tougher than either Tampa Bay or Washington. Still, while Minnesota has been quite dominant at home, they have been noticeably weaker on the road, averaging 11 points per game in their two road games thus far, which were both losses. The Vikings have some serious talent on their offense, however, so it would be best not to expect the G-Men defense to resemble the Big Blue Wrecking Crew defense of old. However, the Giants offense seems to be rolling, and that at least gives them a chance. This one should go right down to the wire, and it would not surprise me if the last team to have the ball winds up winning the game. My pick; Minnesota
N.Y. Jets at Philadelphia – You know, I would love to say that the bye week helped the Jets to gather themselves after a rough start to the season, and that they will be ready for this. But the Eagles are coming off a huge win, and should be fairly well-rested themselves, having handed the Packers their first loss of the season, and doing that at Lambeau Field. So, coming home, Philly should be rocking to see their Eagles fired up for what really seems like a very winnable game for them. Sam Darnold still will not be at the helm for Gang Green, and that is bad news for an offense that has scored a total of 33 points in their first three games combined. Eventually, they will win a game, but not this Sunday in Philadelphia, where the Eagles should make short work of the Jets. My pick: Philadelphia
Atlanta at Houston – Both of these teams lost home games that I did not expect them to lose last week, with the Falcons losing (convincingly) to the Titans, and the Texans losing to the Panthers. But it feels like Houston should have the greater sense of urgency heading into this one, tied for both first and last in a strange AFC South where every team is 2-2. It cannot afford to lose a second straight home game, and to fall behind some other teams in this division. Plus, the Falcons themselves have been a rather weak road team in recent seasons, and have yet to win on the road this season. I expect that will not change after this one, as the Texans should have enough to put another mark in the win column. My pick: Houston
Jacksonville at Carolina – The two expansion teams of 1995 meet again, this time in Carolina. The Panthers and Jaguars have both won two in a row after dismal 0-2 starts to the season. But I have been impressed in particular with Jax, as they have actually played very well in their last three games, and arguably, even in all four, having made it a relatively competitive game in Kansas City to open up the season. The Panthers have improved from that horrific 0-2 start, but they still have a tough roe to hoe in the NFC South. The Jaguars have one of the best defenses over the past three seasons, and my suspicion is that this “D” helps them to earn a tough, and very likely low-scoring affair on the road in Carolina. My pick: Jacksonville
Buffalo at Tennessee – This is a major test for both teams at this point. The Bills just suffered their first loss of the season against the Patriots, but they fought hard, and their defense proved up to the task. Meanwhile, the also tough and physical Tennessee Titans have had a rather up and down season, yet in the inconsistent AFC South, they are in a four way tie for both first and last place. So, both teams really need this win to keep momentum, and to prevent themselves from falling farther back in the divisional race, and more generally, the playoff race. The Bills defense has really impressed me, and I suspect that they should be able to hold Marcus Mariota and the Titans offense more or less in check. This is a road game for them, however, and the Titans themselves are a big, strong, tough, physical team, so this should be a real low-scoring, mostly defensive slugfest. That said, I like the way that Buffalo is playing, and believe that they are on the rise. For teams like that, winning tough games that could help define them are crucial, and this could be one such game for the Bills, which is why I predict a solid road win for them in this one. My pick: Buffalo
Tampa Bay at New Orleans – On the surface, you would be forgiven to expect the Saints to easily win this one. After all, they are generally the better team, and they just pulled off not one, but two huge wins, at Seattle, and last week against the Cowboys, handing both of those teams their first and, so far, only losses of the season. So, the Saints should be fired up. However, New Orleans still does not have star quarterback Drew Brees, and remember, Tampa Bay stunned the Saints in the season opener last year, outscoring them 48-40 in what was a wild shootout. That seems more relevant now than it would have prior to last weekend, because the Bucs just did it again against the Rams, scoring an impressive 55 points and stunning the defending NFC champs. So, this could be a really dangerous game for New Orleans. However, at least the Saints should not be taken by surprise, knowing what Tampa Bay is capable of. They still need to guard against a letdown, but nevertheless, the Saints should be the better team overall, and I believe that they can find a way to win this one, although this is definitely a tricky game that could turn badly if they are not careful. My pick: New Orleans
Arizona at Cincinnati – Well, it is a battle of two winless teams, but somebody will have to win this game, right? The Cardinals still look limited on offense, although they do not look as completely inept as they did last season. They are averaging between 18 to 19 points per game. Their defense, however, has been quite shaky at times, and tends to allow a lot of points. The Bengals have obviously been shaky as well, which is hardly news, given their 0-4 record presently. But something tells me that they are simply the better of these two teams. Plus, home field advantage should help, as well. Both teams need to reorganize, but if I had to put money down on this one, it would be in favor of the home team, as Andy Dalton probably finds his groove a bit, and leads the Bengals to a win. My pick: Cincinnati
London, UK Game - Chicago at Oakland – The Bears have won three straight after dropping their season opener at home to the Packers. Remember, this was pretty much how they began last season, as well, losing in a bad way to the Packers before finding themselves, particularly on defense. Normally, I think that the home field advantage might help, but the Raiders have a very strange home field advantage this season, and especially in this game that will be played eight time zones away from their normal home. Not sure how much of a “home field advantage” this one will be. And anyway, the Raiders offense has been rather inconsistent thus far this season. They can be explosive when they are at their best, as they showed last weekend in a stunning upset win at Indy. But the Bears defense is very, very tough, and that will limit Oakland’s offense considerably. Bottom line, Chicago feels like a team that is catching fire, and now that they have tied the Packers for first, they feel the urgency of keeping pace and remaining on top. Look for Da Bears to dominate with defense and to have enough offensive spurts to carry them to victory here in this one. My pick: Chicago
New England at Washington – What the Patriots really have to guard against is a letdown here. After all, they are 4-0, and looking great. Meanwhile Washington is 0-4, and head coach Jay Gruden is clearly on the hot seat. They could not produce more than three points against the Giants defense last week, and Belichick will likely have the Pats defense very well prepared. It is really hard to see how the Patriots can even lose, but stranger things have happened. New England’s offense should seriously put Washington’s defense to the test, and even with home field advantage, it seems highly unlikely that Washington can seriously challenge the Pats. Unlikely, but certainly not impossible, of course. Any given Sunday, right? But still, since this falls under the domain of predictions, I would be crazy not to go with the obvious choice here. The Pats seem to have a better offense, a better defense, and an obviously, almost ridiculously better coaching staff. The Pats also have stability, something that is sorely lacking in the nation’s capital right now, both on and off the football field. Look for the Pats to remain undefeated, and keep Washington winless. My pick: New England
Baltimore at Pittsburgh – The Steelers finally won their first game last weekend, predictably dominating the still winless (for now) Bengals in the process. Now, they host another team that they have usually gotten the better of, the Baltimore Ravens. Remember, the Ravens are off to a typically inconsistent start. They started the season off 2-0, and looked like they might challenge the Pats and the Chiefs as one of the elites of the AFC. Then, they follow that up with two straight losses. The first was a tough loss at Kansas City, but the next one was at home to the Browns, and the supposedly tough Baltimore defense allowed a whopping 40 points. So, it seems clear that the momentum has gone the other way. Now, they travel to Pittsburgh, a place where they traditionally struggle. This is a tough game, one that could actually go either way, because I am not sure that the Steelers have fully recovered from their early season tumult. But with home field advantage, and the pressure of their first win off their backs, my guess is that they can, and will, beat the Ravens. My pick: Pittsburgh
Denver at L.A. Chargers – Both teams really want this game. The Chargers were able to snap a two game skid by beating the Dolphins last weekend, but in order to keep on pace for a playoff spot, and even to perhaps remain relevant in the AFC West race with Kansas City clearly in charge at this point. A loss here at home against the winless Broncos would be disastrous for the Chargers, as they likely would fall too far behind the Chiefs to really entertain any more hopes of a division title, and their playoff hopes would be compromised, with a third loss in four games. On the other hand, the Broncos really probably should have won a game by now, and might be the best of the winless teams remaining. They are better than their 0-4 record suggests, although that is not exactly saying all that much. But it stands to reason that they are bound to win their first game this season, sooner or later, and the Chargers are more vulnerable that I had expected them to be. Still, heading into this game, the Chargers still appear to be the better team, and with home field advantage, it makes it difficult to pick against them winning this one against a troubled Denver team. My pick: L.A. Chargers
Green Bay at Dallas – This should be a really fantastic game! Both of these teams are storied franchises, and they have a solid rivalry that has ebbed and flowed over the years. They were rivals in the sixties, although the Packers won all of the most important showdowns. They were rivals in the nineties, although the Cowboys won all of those most important showdowns. And they met in the playoffs twice in this decade, although the Pack once again got the better of Dallas both times. While this is not a playoff game, it sure feels like one of those early season games that should have a playoff intensity about it. The Packers have looked phenomenal, particularly with their defense. They also have Aaron Rodgers, and that makes the offense dangerous and potentially explosive. But Dallas also has a solid defense, and their offensive line is still strong, and allows a talented offense to shine. Green Bay’s defense was looking like an elite unit, until it kind of dropped the ball a bit last week, in the lost to Philly. The ‘Boys, meanwhile, still look like they have an elite defense this season, as they have allowed a total of 56 points in their four games, which averages 14 points per game. They lost to the Saints, true, but they still should have plenty enough offense to get back the momentum that they may have lost a bit of last weekend against the Saints. That, coupled with home field advantage, makes me believe that they should come out on top in a tight one. My pick: Dallas
Sunday Night Football - Indianapolis at Kansas City – Well, the Colts dropped an inexplicable game last weekend to the Raiders. They may have overlooked Oakland, although that does not necessarily mean that they will have a leg up at Kansas City, which is one of the toughest places to play on the road. The Chiefs, of course, have that amazing offense, which remains explosive even when star quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffers an uncharacteristically off game, like he did last weekend. The Chiefs are undefeated for a reason, and while I think the Colts will show up and come to play football, it seems to me that KC just has too many weapons on offense for Indy to be able to pull off what would be a major upset. My pick: Kansas City
Monday Night Football – Cleveland at San Francisco – The Browns are hot right now. They scored 40 points in Baltimore, and are tied with the Ravens for first place in the AFC North. You could even say that, presently, they are in first place, as they get the tiebreaker by virtue of that win. However, Cleveland’s early part of the season is brutal, filled with tough games like this. Yes, the 49ers are back to being one of the elites, and they are coming off a bye week, so they had an especially long time to prepare for this. The Browns offense should be able to stretch out the Niner defense and test them, but San Fran probably will do that against the Browns defense, as well. This could be a back and forth games, with a lot of points scored, and possibly a lot of lead changes. My hope is for the Browns to win, but in making predictions, my logic tells me that it would not be wise to pick against the 49ers in this one. My pick: San Francisco
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