So, the final weekend before Thanksgiving is done, and we have a better idea of the playoff picture right now. Little by little, the playoff picture is coming into focus.
In the NFC, San Francisco, Seattle, Green Bay, Minnesota, New Orleans, Dallas, and Philadelphia all still have a chance at winning their respective divisions and, most likely, all but one of those teams will qualify for the postseason.
In the AFC, two teams are absolutely running away from the rest, as the Patriots and Ravens seem to be destined for the top two seeds. After that, it appears that the Texans have the best show of winning the AFC South, while the Chiefs still look like the best team most likely to capture yet another AFC West title. Otherwise, the Bills, the Raiders, the Steelers, and the Colts all look like legitimate playoff contenders, although there are only two spots open for non-division winners.
The Jets are red-hot, seemingly coming from out of nowhere to become dangerous team. Where was this through the disastrous first half of the season? The Browns also look like they are catching fire, and have an outside chance at qualifying for the playoffs if they keep on playing they way they have in the last three games.
Meanwhile, some teams remain with poor play. That includes my Giants, who have not won a game since September. But they are not the worst team in the league right now, as the Bengals lost yet again, falling to 0-11, which means that this is now the worst start in the history of that franchise. They hung tough and had a chance against the Steelers, but ultimately fell just short, predictably.
Let’s take a closer look at each game from this past week in the NFL:
N.Y. Jets 34, Oakland 3 – I had assumed – mistakenly, obviously – that the Raiders would play a lot tougher than they did in this one, given the huge stakes of trying to keep up with the division leading Chiefs, and just generally fighting for playoff positioning. But they got absolutely slammed by Gan Green in this game. Yes, the Jets managed to beat a winning team for the second time this season. But unlike that win against Dallas, this one was never really in doubt. That the Jets won this game is not much of a shock. That they absolutely dominated like they have not dominated anyone in a long, long time? That was the surprise. My pick: Inaccurate
Chicago 19, N.Y. Giants 14 – This was a tough, black and blue contest between two of the most storied franchises in the league, even if both teams have kind of fallen onto hard times. I remember these two teams meeting back in the early nineties, and John Madden pointing out that these two teams were not what they used to be, but that they could put on a good, tough performance. That holds true of this game over the weekend. Neither of these teams are what they once were, but they played a solid game in both cases. But the Bears are not looking quite as dismal as the Giants have lately, and they were able to hold on for a good win that keeps their flickering playoff hopes - very slim hopes, really - alive for a little while longer, at least. For the Giants, this was a seventh straight loss. My pick: Accurate
Buffalo 20, Denver 3 – Talk about hot teams, the Bills are one of the hottest teams in the league. They are 8-3 right now, and heading to the playoffs, most likely. They completely dominated Denver, not allowing anything more than the one field goal. The Bills have a tough defense and a solid home field advantage, especially this time of the year, when Buffalo tends to be cold and have crappy weather. It helped them on this weekend, and should serve them well the rest of the way, to boot. My pick: Accurate
Seattle 17, Philadelphia 9 – Two serious playoff contenders matched up, but it was the fast rising Seahawks who came up with the goods in this one. Seattle did not get the kind of win that gets people excited about their explosive, highlight reel offense, or the kind of attention that some big wins earn for some teams. But this was a very solid win, on the road against a tough team with championship experience. It keeps them right on the heels of the first place 49ers, and the Seahawks are doing it about as quietly as anyone can do it. Impressive, solid win. My pick: Accurate
Pittsburgh 16, Cincinnati 10 – The Bengals had some real chances here. But in the end, this game came down to a thing that seemingly every Bengals game is decided by: their mistakes and missed opportunities. Yes, they might have won if one or two things went a different way. But they did not win, and now, at 0-11, are off to the worst start in the franchise's history. And given how dismal some of that history has been (I remember them starting off 1-11 in 1991 and 0-10 in 1993), that is a really dreary record for them to hold. They are making the wrong kind of history in a season where they just cannot seem to get anything right. My pick: Accurate
Washington 19, Detroit 16 - Washington finally earned their second win of the season - and the first in front of their home fans - by handing the Lions another tormenting loss which will add to the feel that this Detroit franchise is cursed. It feels like not long ago that the Lions were playing solid football and seemed like legitimate contenders to win the NFC North and be a possible force in the playoffs. But that might as well be ancient history, as a much more familiar look for the Lions has now firmly established themselves. Once again, they head to a Thanksgiving game without any real hopes of playoff contention. My pick: Inaccurate
Tampa Bay 35, Atlanta 22 - The Falcons are a very hard team to figure out. They won impressively two weeks in a row, against teams that you figure they would lose to convincingly. Then, just as you begin to think that they are turning it around this season, they lay an egg and lose convincingly to another lowly team, and at home to boot. Hard to make sense of it, except for one consistency with Atlanta: they are definitely not a playoff caliber team. Frankly, they never recovered from that collapse in the Super Bowl. My pick: Inaccurate
Tampa Bay 35, Atlanta 22 - The Falcons are a very hard team to figure out. They won impressively two weeks in a row, against teams that you figure they would lose to convincingly. Then, just as you begin to think that they are turning it around this season, they lay an egg and lose convincingly to another lowly team, and at home to boot. Hard to make sense of it, except for one consistency with Atlanta: they are definitely not a playoff caliber team. Frankly, they never recovered from that collapse in the Super Bowl. My pick: Inaccurate
New Orleans 34, Carolina 31 – I actually got to see the end of this game. It looked like a good, exciting, tight game. Perhaps the defense was not exactly elite level for either team. The Saints were not as dominant as many had expected them to be so far this season, and especially in the last three weeks, since coming back from their bye week. But the most important thing is that they are still winning, and that is not a minor point. They did it again this weekend by surviving a scare and winning on a day when they did not play their best football. Good, solid win that should solidify the NFC South title for them. It might not be official yet, but any chance that the Panthers had of catching the Saints went out the window with this loss. My pick: Accurate
Tennessee 42, Jacksonville 20 - The Titans won in a game between the two last place teams in the AFC South. But by virtue of winning - convincingly, at that - the Titans get back to a winning record and, rather amazingly, still have a shot at not only the playoffs, but the division title, to boot. They are now tied for second with the Colts, and will face the Colts in Indy, and the Texans twice in their remaining games. Don't count the Titans out just yet! My pick: Inaccurate
New England 13, Dallas 9 – These two teams played a solid,, defensive game. Made sense, given the ugly, brutal weather up at Foxboro this weekend. But in the end, the Pats were able to maintain their home dominance and do just enough to earn the win. It certainly was not a pretty game between two of the most high profile team in the NFL, and even sports in North America more generally. But New England does what they do best in the Belichick/Brady/Kraft era: they found a way to win, even when not necessarily playing their best. My pick: Accurate
San Francisco 37, Green Bay 8 – This was supposed to be a big showdown. But it was not much of a game. The 49ers jumped ahead early, and just were unrelenting. The Packers looked weak and incompetent, and San Fran looked, once again, like a serious favorite as the regular season winds down. The Packers owned sole possession of first place in the NFC North for most of the season. Now, however, they share that with Minnesota, a team that seems to be getting better, and the Pack have been absolutely dominated twice on West Coast trips so far this season. My pick: Inaccurate
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