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These have been an unpredictable playoffs so far, and that seems especially true for me.
Why?
Because after six games played, I have now officially gone 0 for 6 in my predictions.
Pretty bad, I know.
There was one top conference team that I suspected was more vulnerable than the record appeared, and another that I felt was complete, top to bottom. That proved true, except apparently, I got the two teams mixed up.
As it turns out, San Francisco proved up to the task of holding down the threat posed by a sixth seed, while the Ravens, who looked like a very complete team, were basically pounded and exposed.
Here is how it all happened in yesterday's games:
Saturday Games
NFC DIVISIONAL GAME
Minnesota Vikings
at
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 27, Minnesota 10
The 49ers are a complete team. They do not necessarily obliterate every team, but they do enough - and sometimes more than enough - to win. They took a lead in this game, and when they were given a chance to absolutely take charge of this game in the third quarter, they took it. They gave what the Vikings had handed to them with the interception, and they made the most of it. Ran with it. And that was the difference in what had been a relatively tight game to that point.
Minnesota was deemed a risky pick, because Kirk Cousins rarely seems to deliver in the big games. When it mattered most in this game, after the 49ers had completely shut down the Vikings running game, Cousins was unable to deliver a victory for the Vikings. They dared him to win the game for Minnesota, and they won that gamble. He could not do it.
Overall, Kirk Cousins completed 21 of 29 passes for 172 yards, with one TD, and one INT. Stefon Diggs led Vikings receivers with two receptions for 57 yards and one touchdown. Running back Dalvin Cook was shut down to the point where he was not a factor in this game, picking up merely 18 yards on 9 carries.
As for San Francisco, Jimmy Garoppolo completed 11 of 19 for 131 yards, also with one TD, as well as an INT. Running back Tevin Coleman picked up 105 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries.
The 49ers dominated in almost every faced. They held onto the ball for over 38 minutes. 308 to 147, and tripled the amount of first downs that Minnesota produced, as the Niners gained 21 first downs, while San Fran's defense contained the Vikings to just seven total first downs in this game.
Now, the Niners will await the winner of today's game between the Packers and the Seahawks. They dominated Green Bay, 36-7, in an earlier meeting, while splitting with the Seahawks in two very tough games this season, as well. Both of those games went down to the wire, with each team winning on the other's home field.
My pick: Inaccurate
AFC DIVISIONAL GAME
Tennessee Titans
at
Baltimore Ravens
Tennessee 28, Baltimore 12
There once was a time when having the best record in the league actually meant something. When being the best team throughout a long regular season meant that you were likely the best team with the best chance of reaching the Super Bowl, period.
In the first few years, from 1981 through 1986, whoever won home field advantage in the NFC playoffs ultimately helped them to reach the Super Bowl, every single season. In fact, that dated to the 1980 season, when the Eagles also had earned the top seed, which means that for seven years in a row, the best team in a conference during the regular season also was the best team in the conference in the playoffs. I can remember the first time that a top seed in the NFC was bounced, and how shocking (and frankly, delighted) I was, back in the 1987 season, when 8-7 Minnesota stunned 13-2 San Francisco. It did not happen often. That was what made it so meaningful - and shocking! - when it actually did happen, because that 49ers team is rightly regarded as one of the best single season teams ever not to make it to the Super Bowl, and never mind that they would win the next two Super Bowls after that. The Niners in 1987 were the last team to rank number one on both offense and defense, and they had the best record in the league. For them to not only lose, but get pretty well dominated, by an upstart team was unthinkable! The next season, though, they themselves as a 10-6 second seed would stun the number one seed Chicago Bears, 28-3, en route to a Super Bowl title. They would enjoy an almost unprecedented level of dominance that would last nearly three full seasons, until the Giants stunned them with a field goal on the final play of the NFC Championship Game following the 1990 season, and ended their dreams of a three peat.
Even in the notoriously unpredictably AFC playoffs back then, the top seed had won in 1982, 1984, and 1987. That trend more or less continued, as the top seed in the NFC would go on to win it all in 1989, 1991, and 1993-1995, which was about the era when there was a major shift in the league, with the salary cap and the age of free agency, not to mention rules that favored offenses, permanently altered the NFL landscape. That trend would also ring true in the AFC, as the top seed would go all the way to the Super Bowl in 1988-1991, and then again in 1993. The couple of years in between sometimes proved that the most resilient, permanent presence in the AFC won out, such as when the Broncos would win as the second seed in 1986, or when the Buffalo Bills enjoyed that remarkable run in 1992, which included the greatest comeback in NFL history after they overcame a 35-3 deficit against the Houston Oilers, showing their resilience.
But these days, it seems that too often, you get teams that look absolutely dominant in the regular season, and then fold like confetti one the playoffs roll around.
The Baltimore Ravens looked like that team. They had pulled off 12 straight wins, and had not lost in a span of over three months! They crushed many of their opponents, and beat the best teams out there. They entered last night's games as solid favorites, and many (myself included) felt that they were the best team in the NFL, and thus, likely to win the Super Bowl.
So of course, they get completely dominated in their first (and only) playoff game this postseason, and their season ends abruptly. All of that dominance that they showed up to this point, the wins and rushing records and highlight reels that were piling up, was all for naught. It might be great for their fans to remember, but likely no one else will, because it counted for nothing when all of the chips were down. Give the Titans credit, they were aggressive. They were physical. They took their opportunities, and ran with it. But it just seems strange to me how a team that barely squeaked into the playoffs have now stunned two favorites in a row, and have now reached the AFC title game, one good solid game away from the Super Bowl.
How did the Titans do it? After all, the Ravens held onto the ball for longer, almost doubled the Titans in terms of first downs earned (29 to 15), and produced way more total yards of offense, 530 yards to just 300 for the Titans.
Well, the answer there is turnovers. The Ravens committed three of them, and two of the early ones helped the Titans score two touchdowns for a sizable lead that helped them to control the tempo of the game the rest of the way.
Ryan Tannehill did not have a great game, completing 7 of 14 passes for 88 yards and two touchdowns. But on the ground, Derrick Henry was a killer, pounding out 195 yards on 30 carries, and throwing a touchdown pass in a surprise move that clearly stunned the Ravens.
Baltimore's amazing young quarterback, Lamar Jackson, produced some solid numbers, statistically. He completed 31 of 59 passes for 365 yards, with one touchdown, although he also threw two key interceptions. Jackson once again also led his team in rushing, producing 143 yards on 20 carries.
But it was not enough. The Titans used their physicality and capitalized on the mistakes that Baltimore gave them, and it was enough to produce a truly stunning upset. The Titans will now await the winner of today's game between the Texans and the Chiefs to see who they will travel to face in next week's AFC Championship Game.
My pick: Inaccurate
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