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Okay, so, the regular season is now over, and the playoffs are here. There will be four Wildcard games this weekend, and the winners will advance to the divisional round of the playoffs. Meanwhile, the losers will go home and join the rest of the 20 teams that failed to qualify to reach the playoffs.
There are two teams that I am a bit surprised will be playing this weekend. They are the 13-3 New Orleans Saints, and the 12-4 New England Patriots, who failed to qualify for the playoff bye for the first time since 2009! That was because they lost to the Miami Dolphins last weekend, and so they lost that second seed, allowing the Kansas City Chiefs to reach it in their place and at their expense.
Otherwise, all of the teams are more or less the teams that we expected for some time, right? Maybe the Titans were a bit of a surprise, but that was pleasant for me, personally. Kind of get tired of seeing the same teams (like the Steelers) get in year after year. Uncharacteristically, Pittsburgh misses out on the postseason now two straight years in a row.
So, here are my predictions for the four games coming up this weekend:
AFC Wildcard Games:
Buffalo at Houston – This will be a hard game to figure, because both of these teams can play really well at times, and then surprise you with some inexplicable loss. But they should both be strong and solid for this game, and we should most likely expect a close game between these two teams. In fact, I have a feeling that it will only be fully decided in the fourth and final quarter, without overtime. The Bills have shown more consistency in my book this season than have the Texans. They have an incredibly solid defense, and they were right there, pushing the Patriots for AFC East supremacy twice. Right now, they look like a team ready to take that next step. They have an offense that can be explosive at times, particularly with unpredictable quarterback Josh Allen. And also, again, that defense is going to be tough for an often struggling Houston team to handle. Now, the Texans do have home field advantage, and that should count for something, at least. They have a fairly tough defense, and J.J. Watts is trying to come back for these playoffs. Plus, their offense also can show explosiveness at times, and they could be dangerous. They were playing very well until the final weekend of the regular season, and should they are especially tough – albeit not unbeatable – when at home. Still, I suspect that the Bills are the more complete team. They have the means to win this game, and have gained confidence with some of their tough wins this season. They also have not won a playoff game in over two decades, and are hungry to finally end that streak. My suspicion is that they will do exactly that this weekend in Houston. My pick: Buffalo
Tennessee at New England (12-4) – This is not the same Patriots team that we have seen in recent seasons. Sure, a lot of people say that, seemingly every season. In most cases, these are people who hate the Patriots, whether or not they will admit to it or not, and they are hungry to see an end to this New England dynasty, so it is more the product of wishful thinking. And remember, last season they fell from 9-3 to 9-5, and it seemed that everyone wrote them off at that point, as well. And look what happened, as they got hot again and went on not only to reach their third straight Super Bowl, but to win it, to boot. Yet somehow, this year really feels different, and has for a while. Sure, New England started off the season like an even scarier version of themselves, racing off to an 8-0 start, and doing so in historically dominant fashion. But then they got whipped badly by the Ravens in Baltimore, and they seemed to lose a lot of their swagger. They were still 10-1 a few weeks later, but they stumbled again, losing to the Texans at Houston, and then dropping their first home game in two years to Kansas City. In the process, the fell from the best record in the league, and having the inside track for home field advantage throughout the playoffs, to just trying to barely hold onto the second seed, and what I felt was a much needed bye week in the playoffs. But they held on…until just a few days ago, when they lost at home again, this time to the 4-11 Dolphins. The Pats really struggled on offense, and their defense, while still impressive, does not appear nearly as good as they appeared to be earlier this season. In other words, they have shown some serious vulnerabilities. They also lost to the other three division winners in the AFC, and if they have to face either the Chiefs or the Ravens, it will be on the road. But before we get there, they still have to find a way to win this game against the Titans. Tennessee showed some toughness through this season, but they have been consistently inconsistent, much like they have been for years now. But when they are on, they can prove to be really tough. They are a tough, physical team, and should give the Pats some headaches. It feels a bit like the Pats almost have had their backs against the wall, at least a lot more in the latter parts of this season than they are used to. Still, Foxboro is not an easy place for road teams to play, and that should work in favor of the Pats. They also have a clear advantage in terms of experience in big games like this. Also, they still have Bill Belichick, most likely the greatest coach in NFL history, and one of the best in sports history. He will have his team prepared, most likely, for any eventuality. Look for the Pats to come out stronger than they have in recent weeks, and for them to find a way to will this victory. I think that this Patriots team might not be as good as the other Pats teams we have seen in recent seasons, but it would be difficult to simply write them off altogether, and think that they are incapable of anything. They should find a way to win this one. Beyond that, I am not sure. But I suspect that they should be good enough to take this one. My pick: New England
NFC Wildcard Games:
Minnesota (10-6) at New Orleans (13-3) – The Saints have played so well all season long, that it is hard to imagine a 13-3 team having to play a wildcard game. I think that has only happened two, possibly three times before, although one of those times was with the 2011 Saints, as well. Indeed, they did not earn that playoff bye, but they are still plenty good enough to win this game. They have one of the best quarterbacks of all time, who seems to be playing extremely well at the moment. Also, they have a decent defense, and will enjoy home field advantage. The Vikings, meanwhile, have lost a lot of the momentum that they enjoyed earlier in the season. They still have a solid “D” that should prove tough, and Dalvin Cook seems on his way to returning to the lineup. All of those things should help, but still, pulling off a win in New Orleans right now seems like a tall order for anyone. And the Saints look like they are firing on all cylinders, and ready to not just win, but blow out whoever comes into their stadium. Not saying that this will be a blowout, but my suspicion is that the home team wins, and leaves no doubt, exacting a measure of revenge for that devastating last second loss to the Vikings a couple of years ago. My pick: New Orleans
Seattle (11-5) at Philadelphia (9-7) – I believe that the Seahawks are the better of these two teams overall. But that said, it seems to me that the Eagles are the hotter team, and they also have home field advantage. That could prove to be really significant. It does not guarantee anything, although the Seahawks are probably kicking themselves for the blown opportunities to have won the NFC West outright, which they had a real opportunity to do. That makes me a bit reluctant to take them as my pick, although again, I would have sworn that they are the better of these two teams. But the Eagles have a good team, probably better than that 9-7 record indicates. This is the third straight season that Philly is in the playoffs, and remember, they won it all just two seasons ago. They also won a postseason game last year, so they have been through a lot, and are no strangers to this level of intensity. Clearly, they have a ton of experience. That will help them, as will home field advantage. The weather forecast looks like it will be mild, so that should not be too strong of a factor, one way or the other. But right now, I am looking at an Eagles team that has had their backs against the wall for a month, and has responded by winning four straight games, each of them absolutely critical. They had no margin for error, and they kept on winning. Meanwhile, the Seahawks were 10-2 and controlled their own destiny for the division title and even home field advantage. Yet, they dropped their final three of four games, and have lost the last two at home. That has got to be demoralizing, and does not speak well for their chances in this one. These two teams appear to be going in opposite directions, and when that happens, I tend to think it is not something that you ignore. If the ‘Hawks are indeed the better overall team – and I still believe that they are, despite it all – then they are capable of winning. But they just looked flat for far too often as the season was winding down, and that was when it mattered the most. They are an improving team, but not the Seahawks of old, with that Legion of Boom defense and the Super Bowl intensity. This team may get there, but not this year, I do not think. Their season kind of went south, and it will likely end this weekend, when the Eagles finally show what they are capable of, and pull off a fifth straight win. At least, that is what I am predicting here, as they still have some semblance of that Super Bowl championship team that they rose to just two years ago, during another January into February run. My pick: Philadelphia
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