2024 NBA Playoff Update
2024 NBA Playoff Update
The NBA Finals match-up is set. The Celtics swept past the Indiana Pacers to clinch the Eastern Conference Championship for a second time in three seasons, while the Dallas Mavericks also fairly quickly dispatched with the Minnesota Timberwolves to win the Western Conference Championship.
Now, they meet in the NBA Finals. The winner of that series will be this year's newly crowned NBA Champions.
So let's get into it.
First of all, the most obvious thing is experience. We have seen the Boston Celtics here in the Finals recently. They made it, but lost, two seasons ago. Also, they have been knocking on the door for a number of years, generally. So that, I feel, gives them a serious advantage, at least in that regard. They are a very talented team and are where they expected to be right from the beginning of the season, or even before then. Indeed, many people expected the Celtics to be here at this point. They had the most successful regular season of any team, by far. After all, they were the only team to reach the 60-win plateau, finishing with a regular season record of 64-18. That was fully 14 games ahead of the second place team in the East, the Knicks, who finished 50-32. And it was seven full games better than the two teams with the best overall record in the West, as both Oklahoma City and Denver finished with regular season records of 57-25.
Also, Boston has been the best team in the playoffs, too. They won the first series over Miami, 4 games to 1. They similarly beat Cleveland, 4 games to 1. Then they swept the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals. That means that to this point, the Celtics have earned a 12-2 record overall during the playoffs. If anything, they have gotten so much extra rest time that you almost worry about them having gotten a little too cooled off. But that is a luxury of a problem to have, and indicative of just how dominant Boston has been to this point. So the Celtics were, far and away, the best team in the NBA, both in the regular season and the playoffs.
However, Dallas should not be overlooked. They finished 50-32, good enough to be the 5th overall seed in the West. They had a back and forth series against the Los Angeles Clippers, but survived to ultimately win, 4 games to 2. Ditto with their second round opponent, the Oklahoma City Thunder. It was not obvious that Dallas would emerge as the best team there, but they won the final two games after the series was tied, 2-2, and so they won that series in six, as well. Then, they jumped out to a 3-0 series lead in the Western Conference Finals over Minnesota. The Timberwolves managed to take Game 4, but then the Mavericks absolutely blasted them in Game 5, to clinch that series, 4 games to 1.
They were 2-1 on the road against the Clippers in Los Angeles, 2-1 on the road against the Thunder in Oklahoma City, and a rather astonishing 3-0 on the road against the Timberwolves in Minnesota. That adds up to a pretty damn impressive 7-2 record on the road in these playoffs. So they have stepped it up a notch or two in the postseason. That said, I do believe that Minnesota might have been a bit spent after a taxing series against Denver, and that Dallas were the beneficiaries of that. I doubt that they will catch the Celtics either off guard or overly taxed like that, so I am not sure their magical success on the road will continue in the NBA Finals. That said, the Mavericks have been good enough on the road that the Celtics need to be aware of that, because the Mavs might not be done with winning on the road.
Still, as successful as the Mavericks have been in road games so far in these playoffs, they will have to be even better to win in Boston. The Celtics were particularly dominant at home, sporting a 37-4 record at home during the regular season, although they suffered both of their losses in the playoffs so far at home in Boston. However, I do not see the Mavericks necessarily managing multiple wins on the road in Boston, so they need to make the most of any opportunities that they might get to take a win on the road in this series.
Both of these teams ranked among the very top of teams defensively through these playoffs. If anything, the Celtics were slightly better, but not so much more that they figure to make short work of the Mavs, who proved quite tough on defense themselves.
On offense, the Celtics also have the slight advantage. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both can score points, and provide a deadly one-two punch that will surely give the Mavericks some real headaches. Not only are they both enormously talented, but they were also both with the Celtics in the 2022 NBA Finals, and thus have experience. That should help them to take advantage of this opportunity even better this time around.
Of course, the Mavericks have Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving. Dončić has emerged as one of the very elite players in the NBA, and it feels like he is having a somewhat similar season in certain respects to Nikola Jokić last year. However, the question is whether or not it will be enough. It feels to me that the Mavericks surprised a lot of people - perhaps including themselves - with their astonishing levels of success in this postseason. But will it be enough to get past the Boston Celtics, who sure appear to be the most talented, as well as possibly the hungriest, team in the league this season?
That is the big question.
Overall, I expect this to be a decent series. I do expect the Mavericks to manage at least one win on the road in Boston. However, I think that the Celtics just have too much talent, and too much hunger and a sense of urgency to get it done now, for them to lose another NBA Finals series. They lost two years ago to a Golden State team with enormous talent, as well as a considerable advantage in terms of experience. This time, they are the ones who have a considerable advantage, in terms of experience, and probably also in terms of talent. I expect them to take full advantage of that and to use that to take control of this series, winning either in five or six.
Also, I expect Jayson Tatum to ultimately win the NBA Finals MVP Award.
My pick: Boston Celtics
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