Monday, August 3, 2026

Rick Wilson of The Lincoln Project Believes That There Is a 90% Chance That Trump Will Receive a Third Term

This is a picture of a magnet that was being sold at Strand's Book Store in New York City a few years ago. No, I did not buy it, but I liked it and took a picture, which I am sharing here now. 


Not long ago, I posted something about how Trump took the opportunity at the White House Correspondents Dinner to put on a Trump 2028 hat. It was a tease indicating that he was going to run again in 2028 for a third term.

A lot of people dismissed it as a joke.

The thing is, I don't actually think he is joking. It seems to me that he is serious. That he fully intends to run again for another term. In fact, it seems to me that his enormous, truly staggering ego will not allow him to be sidelined. He is always and forever about himself, about "me, me, me." And so he will not allow any other Republican to effectively take over his dominant leadership position within the party.

Well apparently, I am not alone in assuming this. While I do not always (or perhaps even often) agree with Rick Wilson, he painted a scenario which seemed to me quite likely. The more I thought about it, the more likely it felt.

What he predicted was that when it came time for the primaries, Trump would reveal exactly why he has not made official his endorsement of any GOP candidate for 2028 to take over. Simply, he would run and make clear that it would be, once again, all about him.

Of course, he legally does not have the right to run again. There is a Constitutional amendment preventing him from running again, right?

Seriously, when has the law ever stopped this guy from doing what he wants?

Wilson predicted that Trump would enter his hat into the race. Then he would let his legal team employ all of the delaying tactics that they are so well known for in the face of the inevitable challenges. These cases would drag on and on, until the race (which truly will be fixed in Trump's favor) is won.

By then, it might be too late.

Wilson seems to think that there is a 90% chance that Trump will get a third term in office.

While I would likely not place those odds quite that high - Trump is very unpopular right now to the point where it would not be believed that he would win another election - I still feel that there is a likelihood that Trump will indeed run again in 2028, that he would receive the GOP nomination for a record fourth straight time, and that he would have a fair chance, at least, to come out on top in the general election in November.

Another thing that Wilson said is that both Republicans and Democrats tend to dismiss him whenever he said this. But it was mostly because they don't want to believe it, and don't want to face the very real prospect that Trump will simply refuse to step down. On a much more limited basis, this is the same reaction I have also gotten to the few people I have revealed this prediction that Trump will be our forever president. And while I understand not wanting to face it, not wanting to even think about Trump running yet again, it is better (I think) to be clear sighted about this and face it rather than give in to escapism and wishful thinking. 

Do you really believe that Trump, who orchestrated January 6th the last time he was forced to leave office, will simply allow himself to be replaced?

Personally, I don't think so. 



Trump will be the next three term president, I’m 90% sure | Rick Wilson   The Trump Report and The Lincoln Project, July 31, 20206:

https://youtu.be/xCsUlNFxj6s?si=sTJQfxorjTtj_Cno

Trump will be the next three term president, I’m 90% sure | Rick Wilson

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