When this war between Russia and Ukraine began, I began to feel like there were some difficult to ignore some similarities between this and Mr. Bush’s war in Iraq, which started, incredibly, almost two decades ago now. Despite how different the situations between the two wars clearly were, the similarities in terms of worldwide outrage and exaggerations and outright lies by the aggressor nation to justify their actions were, frankly, hard to miss.
George W. Bush and his administration quite clearly were beating the drums of war. They made Saddam Hussein out to be the greatest and most dangerous villain this world had seen in many decades, comparable to Hitler or Stalin. Much was made about how he had launched a chemical attack against his own people, although somehow, those pining for war in the administration left out the little detail about how Americans not only provided those chemical weapons that Saddam used to attack his own people, but also continued to provide him those weapons after that attack against his own people. Saddam’s Iraq was billed as almost a superpower, with yellow cake uranium and a seemingly almost completed nuclear weapons capabilities. He was alleged to have a mass arsenal of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD’s) and 45-minute response time. Yet, despite how supposedly powerful and immediately dangerous Saddam was, American officials also boldly predicted a quick and decisive victory, with Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld even going so far as to infamously suggest that the war would last six days or maybe six weeks, but it surely would not last six months.
In fact, while Saddam’s regime was indeed toppled inside of two weeks, the war itself did not end there. It sure seemed like one of the unofficial objectives for the Bush administration was to showcase American military might. Rumsfeld was right, too. The war did not last six months. It lasted the better part of a decade, and American troops remained there for years after that, to boot. Far from highlighting the unbelievable and overpowering strength of the American military, it in fact showed just how costly wars could be in every sense of that word, and for once, it helped make Americans much more cautious about getting entangled in foreign wars. Oh, and those WMD’s that were the main justification for the war? They were never found. Bush made a joke about it. I’m sure many of the family members of soldiers who fell there were laughing, as were the injured, to say nothing of the hundreds of thousands of Iraqis who lost their lives, and the countless others who sustained permanent injuries.
Well, now we see Russia invading Ukraine. And much like Mr. Bush's war, there were a whole number of major lies told to his people in order to justify the case for war, and they are largely on trumped up charges. Putin says, for example, that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. There appeared to be similar claims that Ukrainians would embrace Russians as liberators, largely because of another major lie that Putin used in justifying this war: that Ukraine has been taken over by Nazis. But Ukrainian President Zelensky is Jewish, a descendant of a family member who survived the Holocaust (many of his family members did not). Having a Jewish head of state hardly seems consistent with a country taken over by Nazis. As for the claims of brotherhood, and that the two countries are one and the same, there is everywhere abundant evidence to the contrary. Ukrainians are resisting against the Russians throughout in the country, condemning them during peaceful protests, attacking them outright militarily, and showing signs of defiance all across Ukraine. So Russia has stepped up the attacks, and seems to be relying now on destroying Ukrainian cities, especially Mariupol and Kharkiv. Because nothing will solidify the bond between fraternal nations like one of them trying to completely destroy the other, right?
Then, there is the other big lie, one that it felt like the entire world believed. Just weeks ago, before Russia’s invasion, it felt like Vladimir Putin was a cold, calculating, figure, and many people, infamously including a former American president, seemed to suspect that he was a genius. Russia, many suspected, would quickly overtake Ukraine. When President Zelensky declared that he would not be going anywhere, but would be staying right there in the capital city of Kyiv, it seemed brave, but foolish. He's going to wind up getting killed, and being at best a martyr to the Ukrainian cause. Yet, he also insisted that Ukraine was definitely going to win, and succeed in throwing the invading Russians out. At the time, it seemed like a desperate claim. Sure, it would be nice if that happened, but it sure felt unlikely. After all, Putin would not carelessly launch an invasion without knowing the risks, without a solid, foolproof guarantee of meeting his objectives. Much like the rest of the world, I also expected that Russia would quickly and decisively overtake Ukraine.
Yet, far from showcasing overwhelming Russian military might, this war has in fact revealed exactly the opposite. It has become clear that this war is not going at all the way that many expected, especially the head honcho inside of the Kremlin. Indeed, Putin has tried to remain outwardly calm, and to publicly shrug off the myriad military mishaps and the far slower than expected Russian military advances, as well as the widespread economic sanctions and worldwide condemnation that this invasion has generated.
Indeed, he might try to hide the surprising difficulties that Russia’s invading force have faced in Ukraine. The Ukrainians themselves are not opening their arms and embracing the Russians, as many Russians expected. And why wouldn’t Russians expect that, given all of the propaganda that Putin and his government has fed them? They were told that outright Nazis had taken over Ukraine and were in control there. Using that logic, this invasion was actually an act of helping to liberate Ukraine. Putin has also emphasized that, in his opinion, Russians and Ukrainians are one people.
It certainly has not seemed like that. Everywhere Russian troops go, they seem to encounter Ukrainians who absolutely hate them. They have faced fierce resistance by the Ukrainian military, and surprise attacks by civilians. They also have faced crowd of brave, peaceful protesters who have tried to shame the occupying Russians in the regions under Russian control. And the relentless shelling of cities, which have destroyed huge parts of a number of cities, particularly Mariopol and Kharkiv, has not exactly endeared Ukrainians to Russia or it’s cause in this war on their home soil, or helped them to feel united as one people with Russians. In fact, it understandably has caused exactly the opposite reaction.
Yes, Russia has appeared weaker than what most people had believed prior to this invasion. There have been a lot of mishaps, the invasion is not going according to plan. A lot of things just seemingly keep going wrong for them, most famously that seemingly invincible convoy that was supposed to have been something like 60 kilometers/ 40 miles, and seemingly was destined to take over Kyiv, and probably sooner rather than later. Yet, it was stalled, attacked, stuck in the mud. Everything seemingly that could have gone wrong, has gone wrong. It feels symbolic of this invasion itself to this point.
Russia has been shelling Mariopol relentlessly for over two weeks. They have been laying siege there, in an effort to starve the Ukrainians holding out against them. No supplies can get in, and so the people are without food or water. Plus, Russian missiles have devastated that city, leveling the majority of it, hitting over 80 percent of buildings. It seems that they figured that all of this would force a surrender. But those in charge of that city yesterday refused Russia’s offer to surrender, and the battle, much like the war itself, goes on.
In short, if this war was supposed to highlight Russia’s military might, and showcase it’s efficiency and capabilities, it has actually wound up doing the exact opposite. The Russian war effort has been surprisingly ineffective so far, at least in terms of reaching their objectives and capturing the major cities, particularly Kyiv, the capital. So it appears that Vladimir Putin, who again, some considered a genius and seemed almost all powerful and virtually untouchable before this invasion (and remember, that was less than four weeks ago as I am writing this), has seemed instead to have burst his own image. This is not the kind of war that Putin likely expected. It has not only diminished how Russia’s military might is regarded, but seems to have diminished the status of Putin himself.
Ukrainian President Zelensky has suggested that Putin has made a point of hiding Russian casualties in this war purposely, and he is very likely right. Zelensky told Russians that thousands of their soldiers had already fallen, and that Russian soldiers presently in Ukraine can expect to meet their end if they continue to fight.
How bad is it?
According to some recent reports, Russia has lost approximately 7,000 of their troops, according to American intelligence. This is far more than most people had expected. And that is not even mentioning the tanks and other military equipment lost in the struggle, as Ukrainians have launched attacks against Russian tanks and military parties. As of right now, Russia is planning on bringing in more troops to make up for these losses, as they try to make adjustments. If they hope to achieve their stated ends, then they really need to make adjustments, because again, things are not going well. In fact, experts have suggested that this level of losses is, frankly, unsustainable. If things do not improve, Russia would be forced to withdraw within weeks.
However, desperation can make a man do things that he normally might not do. Let me share a personal story. My girlfriend is Polish, and specifically, she is from the southeastern region of Bieszczady, right along the Ukrainian border. She had spoken occasionally about the possibility that Russia would invade Poland, an idea that seemed crazy to me at the time. It seems a little less out there now, but still, for now, seems unlikely. She says that I don't know how it really is, because he is crazy. Now, I do get how she and other Polish people, as well as eastern Europeans more generally, view Russia, and perhaps especially Putin, with distrust and some fear. After all, their countries were dominated by a Russian dominated Soviet Union for half a century. But that was then, and this is now. As I mentioned before, Putin always struck me as coldly calculating, rather than outright crazy. And if anything, the problems that the Russian military has faced during this Ukrainian war would make such a cold, calculating man think twice about invading another country, and especially if that is a NATO country.
Now, everyone admires Ukrainian President Zelensky as a hero. He very well may be the most famous person in the world right now, and is surely the most universally celebrated one. When is the last time that we could say that of a politician of any nationality? Much like everyone else, I also admire the man, and have agreed with much of what he has said. There are a couple of things that I would hesitate to agree with, though. One is the escalation of the war. Remember, this is a nuclear power. Whatever may have happened so far in this war which has diminished Russia's military prestige, the fact of the matter is that it is still a very powerful nation, with a very, very large nuclear arsenal. And it has a man at the helm who feels less cold and calculating than he had seemed in the leadup to the invasion of Ukraine, and more like Donald Trump. More narcissistic, more willing to gamble, and more willing to go push the envelope and go to extremes to get his way. Also, much like Trump, he is overstating his own case, and making wild threats, like that hardly veiled threat of nuclear violence against NATO if they intervene in this conflict.
The other thing that he said which I would explicitly disagree with was his prediction that it would not end in Ukraine. That he would go after all of the former Eastern Bloc nations, the former Warsaw Pact countries. He would soon invade countries like Poland, Romania, Czechia, Slovakia, and even up to East Berlin. This viewpoint has been echoed by other Ukrainians, as well, who said that the West should fight this war on Ukrainian soil since it is already happening there, because in the future, this war would escalate and reach their soil. In other words, fight this war today on Ukrainian soil, or fight it on your own soil tomorrow. But again, I reiterate, Putin and Russia hardly look like they are ready to launch another invasion. Hell, they hardly look ready to fight this war, which they themselves launched a month ago. If they, and especially Putin, might have hungered for war when they began this invasion, they seem to have lost their appetite since. It just is not going anywhere near as well as they surely had expected it to for them.
So yeah, we can have some doubts about Russia actually invading NATO countries and taking over all the way to East Berlin, to reestablish the good old days of Soviet military and political might. That said, however, Putin looks and sounds more and more like a desperate man. Maybe not a completely unhinged one. At least not yet. But if he is seriously threatened to the point where he feels that his power, or perhaps even his life, is threatened? Well, let's just say that while I believe that Putin was bluffing with those over the top, nuclear threats, it hardly seems wise to really push him on that and test whether or not he really meant it. The West could perhaps launch an assassination attempt, but who knows what the unintended consequences of such an action could lead to.
Well, we’ll see about that. My guess is that Putin and Russia will continue to shell and bomb cities, and perhaps will step up their attacks in that regard, even as they possibly try and either withdraw their troops, or at least hold back.
But it sure seems that Putin made a fatal mistake here with this war. He clearly wanted to be the guy who rose the Russian Empire back to prominence, that he wanted it to come a little closer to the power of positioning that the Soviet Union enjoyed not that long ago. If anything, though, this invasion seems to have set Russia back, instead of pushing it forward.
The Russian military's heavy losses from Ukraine in charts by Julie Coleman,Shayanne Gal of Business Insider, March 21, 2022:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-russian-militarys-heavy-losses-from-ukraine-in-charts/ar-AAVkIVK?ocid=ientp
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