Earlier today, I forced myself to overcome some recent back issues and go for a decent walk of about 2.5 miles, which is what I usually more or less aim for. Usually during such walks, my body heat builds up, so it actually gets kind of warm. That happened today, but it took a while, because it felt cold and gloomy out. I had actually brought a hat with me, which was a bit unusual for me. And here's the thing: it was not even really a cold day. In fact, I am quite sure that the temperatures were, at worst, seasonal, and quite possibly, a bit warmer than average for this time of the year.
To put it short, we have had a very, very mild winter so far in the greater New York/New Jersey metropolitan area. There was perhaps one, maybe two winters which I can remember which were as mild, or possibly milder. One would be the winter of 2001-02, when we got perhaps two snowfalls with measurable amounts of snow to have fallen. And the other was ten years later, in 2011-12, when we got one major snowstorm in late October, with snow measuring about a foot and a half if memory serves correctly, and then did not see snow again. That storm had been well before winter actually officially began, so it looked like a sign of a scary winter to come. In truth, it was probably the mildest winter that New Jersey ever had. We never saw snow again, and we had more days that reached 70 degrees Fahrenheit and over then we did days that stayed at or under 30 degrees Fahrenheit. Now, that was really an unusually mild, warm winter.
Not sure that this winter is quite at such historical levels of warmth, or moderation (if this can be said to be moderate). But one thing for sure: this has been a very moderate winter to this point, and we are now in late February. True, we still have a week of February left, then all of March. Even April can sometimes be tricky with surprise snowstorms. But the outlook for this week looks the same as it has now for a while: temperatures well into the 40's Fahrenheit, sometimes into the 50's and possibly reaching 60. One cold - perhaps I should say seasonal - day in the forecast, which will be Saturday, and it will simply be colder than those mild days. Temperatures topping out somewhere in the 30's, and with no snow predicted. That is how the whole winter has looked so far. Mostly mild days with cold patches here and there. Sometimes, the nights dip down and feel quite cold, and cars get iced up a bit. But that's about it. We have largely not seen inclimate weather. My back is hurting lately, but it's not because of shoveling snow, as has been the case for some winters in the past. Perhaps March will be different. Yet, it somehow feels unlikely, albeit not impossible.
Back in childhood, I remember some pretty brutal winters. We even had some very snowy winters in the nineties (particularly 1993-94 and 1995-96), and perhaps a few since then that were not quite as bad, but where we got fair amounts of snow. We even had one month just a couple of years ago - it was February of 2021 - where we suddenly got pounded by one snowstorm after another, and it felt seriously cold.
By and large, however, it feels like we can almost expect mostly mild and moderate winters here in this region, in northern New Jersey. This appears to be the new normal. Nor are we alone. Much of the northeast has experienced similarly moderate winters, at least in comparison to what they traditionally saw. And the trend is even true for much of the country, and perhaps much of the world. In short, it feels like it is confirmation of a larger trend, which scientists warned about for many decades. Of course, I am talking about climate change.
Many people seem downright happy when we have these strange, unseasonably warm and often sunny days, right in the middle of what is supposed to be winter. Twice in recent days, it was sunny and warmer than 60 degrees Fahrenheit (15.5 Celcius). There was one walk I took where it seemed like there were more birds than we usually see this early in the year. Birds were singing, and it felt quite mild, even warm. In short, it felt like spring. Except, of course, this was February (it was actually the mid-point of the month during this particular walk). And that seems to be more and more common. Indeed, mild winters appear to be more and more common for this region. After all, it took us almost to the end of January this year before New York City actually got any measurable snow, and that marked the longest such streak, a new record. And in the town where I live in Hillsborough, New Jersey, we did not even get snow then. Indeed, we got a brushing of snow once, as I understand it, and I was not even there for that. Up further north, where the altitude gets a little higher because of the Kittatinny Range, they also got some measurable snow at least a couple of times, perhaps more. But nothing that would constitute a brutal winter by any stretch.
As I already mentioned, this seems to be a national trend, at that. Some years ago, I heard about this rather stunning slice of news. Oklahoma, which often gets cold during the winter, saw new high temperature records shattered when they reached literally 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.7 Celcius), which is simply unheard of for the wintertime in Oklahoma.
I posted something about it on my Facebook page but, for some unknown reason, I never posted it here. But after running into the article again on my Facebook memories, I decided to post it now. Because to me, all of this is not good news. No, it feels more like confirmation of exactly what those scientists were warning us about decades ago. Back then, I remember, it seemed that most people were skeptical of the science of climate change. Certainly, that was the official position of the White House during the Reagan/Bush years of the 1980's and early 1990's, at least. Now, we mostly seem to have accepted it as the truth, although we hardly seem to elect prominent politicians who have shown any kind of determination to actually do something about it. And so when I see people in my everyday life celebrating the warmth, it feels a bit depressing to me. Don't get me wrong: I can enjoy a beautiful weather day as much as anyone, even in February, or other winter months. But there is also a recognition that this really is not normal, and hardly something that we should be very happy about. In fact, it feels like a warning sign of what's to come.
And just like scientists warned us about all of those decades ago, that is not good news.
Oklahoma Just Hit Temperatures of 100 Fahrenheit in The Depths of Winter by Fiona MacDonald, NATURE 17 February 2017:
https://www.sciencealert.com/oklahoma-hit-temperatures-of-100-fahrenheit-in-the-depths-of-winter?fbclid=IwAR125xw1VnHGXsP6ISKkMX6t6gBMCI1Tcr_YZRQ-dtljlN4ZbKFign7t36A
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