Super Bowl LVII Prediction

 

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Okay, so it's that time again.

This is Super Bowl weekend, and all of the remaining questions concerning this season will finally be answered. And that means that it is time for me to make my last NFL prediction for this season, as well. Who will win the Super Bowl?

Well, I should start off by saying that this year's Super Bowl feels like one of the most evenly matched games heading into it that we have seen in a long time. There really is a great deal of uncertainty about just who the better, more complete team is. 

Both teams have explosive offenses led by dynamic quarterbacks. The defenses for both are not especially spectacular, although the Chiefs rank higher at number 10, while the Eagles rank 15, which is middle of the pack. That said, Philly's defense really stepped it up a few notches during this year's postseason run, keeping both the G-Men and the Niners to 7 points each. That said, I would tend to doubt that they will contain KC to a mere 7 points, although I could be wrong.

On offense, both teams can obviously score. Indeed, this Super Bowl match-up is between the two top ranked offenses in the league. That is something which I cannot remember happening before in Super Bowl history. Kansas City's offense ranked as the best in the league overall, as well as numerous categories, including points, touchdowns, red zone points, first downs yards, total yards,, and pass yards. The Eagles scored a whopping 69 points total in their two playoff games, and won by 31 and 24 points, respectively. If they manage to blow out the Chiefs in this game, this will likely rank as one of the most dominant playoff runs in NFL history. 

However, that will take some doing. Because while the Chiefs have a slight advantage, at least statistically, in terms of both their offensive and defensive rankings, where they have the strongest and most decisive advantage, I believe, is with their coaching. Andy Reid is truly one of the great head coaches of all time, surely in the top five at this point, I should think. Remember, Reid had all of those great years in Philadelphia, where he led the Eagles to four straight NFC Championship Game appearances, and five overall. Now, he has been there for five straight AFC Championship Game appearances with the Chiefs, and this is his fourth overall Super Bowl appearance. Clearly, he is one of the most successful coaches in the history of the game. 

Yeesh! When I look back at what I just wrote, it seems that all I have been saying favors the Chiefs, almost across the board! Yet, momentum is critical in sports, and perhaps especially in the NFL, where playoff battles between teams are not the best of five or seven game series, as in hockey, basketball, or baseball, but one game contests. Every great play, every mistake, is magnified in terms of significance. And so momentum carries extra weight here. And right now, the Eagles are very, very hot. That has been true on some level all season. Nobody started off hotter than with Philadelphia, who got off to a franchise best 9-0 start, and stood at 13-1 at some point in December. Plus, they were not just barely winning, but rolling over teams, it seems. They stumbled a bit to the finish line in the regular season, and they looked shaky enough that, admittedly, I was not sure that they would not stumble and fall once the playoffs came. I picked against them when they played the Giants, and I picked against them yet again when they faced San Francisco. But they have proved me wrong. Not only did they win both contests, but they absolutely dominated, and left no doubts. Clearly, momentum seems to be back on their side. They are playing with just a ton of confidence, and if anybody in this game enters with the benefit of that all-important momentum, it is the Eagles. The differences between official offensive and defensive rankings may be negligible. The coaching gap, which I argued favors the Chiefs, could prove not at all decisive. Indeed, right now, the Eagles just looked awesome, like world beaters, as they blazed their path to the Super Bowl, dominating their way to the NFC title. Now, they are sixty solid minutes of football away from the biggest prize of all. 

Yet, the Chiefs are, obviously, a big obstacle. This team has replaced the New England Patriots a few years ago as the most consistent elite team in the league. They have made it to the last five AFC Championship Games in a row, and they are making their third Super Bowl appearance in four seasons. They won that first one, and are looking for the second Super Bowl title in the Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid era, which would place them as one of the all-time elite quarterback-coach combinations. And maybe I was wrong in the previous paragraph. Maybe the differences in rankings are not so negligible. The Eagles defense looked overwhelmingly strong against the Giants and 49ers, both of whom can have explosive offenses. But the Chiefs have literally the best offense of this era, and their quarterback is the best quarterback of this era, and one of the greatest to ever play the position. I would be surprised if he does not win multiple Super Bowl rings in his career, and indeed, he and his team are sixty minutes of good football away from just that. 

To my mind's eye, I expect that this will be a tough game, and do not expect a blowout either way. It could happen, of course. I already mentioned just how significant momentum can be, especially in such a big game, when a team might grow nervous and get away from their own game plan when things are going wrong, compounding an already dire situation. Some Super Bowls have been blowouts, and they are not always reflective of the actual gap between the two teams. My expectations are that this should be a close game, and that it will be decided in the fourth quarter, or possibly even in overtime. In other words, it should be close. Expect a close game. Let's at least hope that we get one, anyway. 

So this is a good one. Heading into the big game, again, it is difficult to make a pick. 

Before that, however, I thought it might be fun to review my own past predictions and see how accurate I was. Yes, I have made predictions for the big game every year since January of 2011, when the Packers beat the Steelers. Since then, it's been a mixed bag. Sometimes, I seem to be on point. Other times, clearly, I underestimated the team that actually emerged victorious. So let's see how I did with each of those predictions, and follow that up with my official prediction for this one, for Super Bowl LVII.

Here goes:

Super Bowl XLV: Packers over Steelers

My pick: Accurate

https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2011/01/super-bowl-xlv.html

Super Bowl XLVI: Giants over Patriots

My pick: Accurate

https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2012/01/super-bowl-xlvi-preview-new-york-giants.html

Super Bowl XLVII: Ravens over 49ers

My pick: Accurate

https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2013/01/super-bowl-xlvii-preview-baltimore.html

Super Bowl XLVIII: Seahawks over Broncos

My pick: Inaccurate

https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2014/01/super-bowl-xlviii-preview.html

Super Bowl XLIX: Patriots over Seahawks

My pick: Inaccurate

https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2015/01/super-bowl-xlix-preview.html

Super Bowl L: Broncos over Panthers

My pick: Inaccurate

https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2016/02/super-bowl-50-preview.html

Super Bowl LI: Patriots over Falcons

My pick: Accurate

https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2017/01/super-bowl-li-preview.html

Super Bowl LII: Eagles over Patriots

My pick: Inaccurate

https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2018/02/super-bowl-lii-preview-predictions.html

Super Bowl LIII: Patriots over Rams

My pick: Accurate

https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2019/02/super-bowl-liii-preview-new-england.html

Super Bowl LIV: Chiefs over 49ers

My pick: Accurate

https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2020/01/super-bowl-liv-preview.html

Super Bowl LV: Buccaneers over Chiefs

My pick: Inaccurate

https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2021/02/super-bowl-lv-preview.html

Super Bowl LVI:Rams over Bengals 

My pick: Inaccurate

https://charbor74.blogspot.com/2022/02/super-bowl-lvi-preview.html

So if you are keeping count, that means that out of the 12 Super Bowls dating back to Super Bowl XLVI that I have made predictions for here on this blogger, I have been accurate when picking the winner six times, and inaccurate six times. Half the time right, half the time wrong. Like a .500 team, in other words. Have to admit, I would have thought my accuracy would have been better. In fact, I was a bit stunned and admittedly disappointed to see how often I got the picks wrong for the big game. 

This Super Bowl will break that tie. I will either have a winning record again, or a losing record. The pressure is on, and it's time to make my pick. 

Now finally, here is my prediction for this year's Super Bowl:

Super Bowl LVII:
My pick: Kansas City Chiefs 

Accuracy? To be determined later on Super Bowl on Sunday