Tensions are mounting between Russia and the West once again. Russia's Putin announced that he was suspending the START nuclear pact, which is the last remaining active treaty between Russia and the United States. While he said that he is not fully withdrawing from the pact, and that Russia would continue to honor the terms of the deal. He also stated that he would continue exchanging information regarding test launches with the United States, which were part of the terms of earlier agreements.
However, it seems clear that this was a shot at the United States in particular, and the West more generally. Putin has made it abundantly clear that he views Western involvement in Ukraine as unwelcome intervention. While much of the world, obviously including the West, views the war in Ukraine as an act of Russian aggression, Putin himself argues that, in fact, it is the West who are the aggressors, and Russians are simply trying to liberate Ukraine from the tyranny of a regime in Kyiv which, he argues, is manipulated and controlled by the West:
“We aren’t fighting the Ukrainian people,” Putin said ahead of the war’s first anniversary Friday. “The Ukrainian people have become hostages of the Kyiv regime and its Western masters, which have effectively occupied the country.”
Putin added:
“It’s they who have started the war. And we are using force to end it,” he said before an audience of lawmakers, officials and soldiers, and broadcast on all state TV channels.
It is no secret that the war has not been going well for Russia, and that this seemed to make Putin's previously unquestioned and unchallenged leadership status in Russia look suddenly more vulnerable. He dipped down to 77 percent approval ratings in September, and there was some speculation among Western media that Putin's days as Russia's leader might be numbered. However, there has been a bounce back for him, as Putin's latest official approval ratings in Russia dating back to last month remained quite high, at 82 percent.
Also, many in the West seemed to believe that Putin might soon need to announce a withdrawal of his forces from Ukraine. However, if we take Putin's talk on face level, it seems that he is as resolved as ever to see it through. That means that an end to the war does not appear to be anywhere in the foreseeable future.
Here is a summary of some of the fluctuations in Putin's popularity over the years, according to Statista Research Department (see link below):
What has shifted Putin’s approval rating? Since his first presidential term started in 2000, Vladimir Putin's highest approval rating was measured at 88 percent, when he was the country's prime minister. In 2008, as a result of the war with Georgia, Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In 2014, Russia annexed the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, viewing it as a historic reunification. Despite Western sanctions that were imposed on the country in response the violation of territorial integrity of Ukraine, the approval rating remained high over the following years. In February and March 2019, among the reasons behind the decline in approval were a pension reform and a retirement age hike. What awaits Russia after 2024? During his state of-the-nation speech in January 2020, Vladimir Putin suggested amendments to the Russian Constitution, some of which are aimed at restructuring the executive power within the country’s administration. Regarding the amendments, 47 percent of Russians believed that they were designed to prepare the political system for the period after 2024, allowing Putin to stay in power in a role different from a president. In March 2020, an amendment was proposed to the Constitution to reset the previous presidential terms of Putin, allowing him to stay as a president until 2036. The amendments were approved in an all-Russian voting with nearly 78 percent of Russians supporting them.
Putin raises tension on Ukraine, suspends START nuclear pact by The Associated Press, February 21, 2023:
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-politics-de0af48be7ea480ccb0175f55a065363
Vladimir Putin's approval rating in Russia monthly 1999-2023 Published by Statista Research Department, Feb 2, 2023:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-rating-russia/
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